Jeff Nagel reports: Poll suggests transit referendum ‘winnable’
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New polling data suggests a planned referendum next March on new taxes to expand the Metro Vancouver transit system could yet pass despite waning public support for TransLink over a series of hot-button controversies.
The survey was conducted for TransLink in two phases in May and late June by Maple Leaf Strategies, before and after the release by Metro mayors of their expansion vision.
The first phase found 57 per cent of respondents were very or somewhat likely to vote ‘yes’in the referendum, rising to 61 per cent in late June. Thirty-five per cent said they were unlikely to vote in favour.
“That is very encouraging for us,” said Bob Paddon, TransLink’s executive vice-president of strategic planning. “A referendum is winnable.” …
SFU City Program director Gordon Price said he also thinks the referendum may be winnable, but cautioned there are major risks.
“Those are more optimistic results than I would have anticipated,” he said of the polling data.
A companion survey from Mustel Group indicated declining overall support for TransLink – down to 68 per cent of respondents with a favourable opinion from 75 per cent in 2010 when the Canada Line opened.
And the polling was conducted before two major SkyTrain shutdowns fueled intense criticism of TransLink in May, as well as this week’s release of rising payouts to senior executives.
Price also noted there’s no final agreement between the mayors and the provincial government on what tax mechanism would be used and no clarity on what it would cost the typical household – answers that voters need as soon as possible.
Even assuming the mayors and province reach a deal, transit advocates like Price expect a difficult battle for votes against anti-tax opponents of TransLink spending.
Much, he said, will come down to how voters perceive the question.
“If it’s a vote on TransLink, most people think it would be very tough,” Price said. “If it’s a vote on our future, the chances increase – provided the number is palatable, people believe they’re getting value for money and all parts of the region benefit.”
Also essential, he said, is that politicians across the spectrum and right up to the premier support the plan and the Yes campaign.
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