May 11, 2017

Province Part Two: “Compromise” on “Co-Promise”-A View from an Informed Reader

 
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Price Tags is blessed with an educated base of very informed readers, who richly  contribute to the comment section. Price Tags editors want to share the following comment from reader Alex Botta, who writes comprehensively and coherently about the challenges ahead in navigating a Provincial boat potentially helmed by three different skippers.
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The urban-rural divide is now clearer than ever, and Christy helped widen it. Many of the comments following posted CBC and Globe & Mail news stories about the election results indicated absolute disdain for Metro Vancouver from the hinterlands. Several pointed out that city dwellers do not know much about rural areas. Maybe so, but I also read a huge amount of ignorance about the city and how important it is to the provincial economy. The next government must find ways to bridge that divide.
The overlap between the Green and NDP platforms is quite remarkable. I believe they have the basic working foundations of a coalition already in place. Andrew Weaver was interviewed on The National last night. I had to watch part of the following National broadcast to make sure I heard him right. He reiterated with passion that the deal breaker issues to the Greens backing another party were: i) to take the money out of politics; and ii) and to not allow more bitumen tankers in our waters. Redirecting LNG into renewables and a number of other issues on housing, instituting proportional representation, and raising the carbon tax are also on the table. He also said he will not be bribed with a cabinet seat, and said he didn’t leave his career as a climate scientist at its pinnacle just to be bought by the promise of a place in cabinet. The interview with Weaver starts about 10 minutes in:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational
For the life of me, I really don’t see Christy Clark agreeing to any of these negotiating points. If she does work something out with Weaver she will obviously be doing it as a temporary measure, all the while wielding that million watt instant fake smile of hers and issuing unbelievable comments about what a good environmentalist she is, and maybe purchase a couple of green sweaters for photo-ops in front of green trees while hugging bunnies. Meanwhile, she’ll keep the curtain closed on the bursting closet of her policies on fossil fuels, biding her time until she can stab the Greens in the back and try for another strong majority even though 59% of the vote this week went to the progressive side of the ledger.
Keep in mind when the final votes are counted she may form a very slim majority of one or two seats and cancel the need for an agreement with Weaver et al, which could collapse if a couple of MLAs get the flu and miss a crucial vote. The same applies to an NDP-Green government. It may be wise for both parties to hand out vitamins and surgical masks at the door to every meeting.
If the Greens and NDP are really serious about bringing the BC economy into the 21st Century they would negotiate a two or three-term agreement to stop competing with each other in every riding and run one candidate against the Liberals in key locations, therein likely attaining majority status until proportionality is fully realized. Three terms as a BC NDP-Green coalition government will potentially change the entire nation for the better by creating hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs in renewables (potentially over 150,000 in wind power alone), in construction around greatly expanded urban transit, lowering emissions remarkably, fostering innovation labs through directed educational institute funding in partnership with industry, and so on.
Lastly, the Libs record as supreme debt creators is unsurpassed. Moreover, they are masters at hiding it beyond the reach of annual budgets. In other words, the Libs do not care one whit that their grandchildren will be saddled with the enormous burden of paying it down, probably at much higher interest rates than today. The NDP of the 90s look like fiscal conservatives by comparison. I suggest that an NDP-Green government must also address debt reduction, even if that means enacting a dedicated debt reduction tax. If they can manage to create thousands of additional jobs in the renewable energy and construction sectors and value-added measures in sustainable resources like forestry, then moderating taxes won’t be a big issue within a healthy economy. The direct provincial debt is expected to reach almost $70B at the end of this fiscal year, and $78B next year. When contractual commitments are added, we’re looking at almost $200B.
Sustainability applies as much to the economy as it does to the environment. To suggest the NDP / Greens will blow it on fiscal issues is mythmaking when you look at the evidence.”

 

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  1. Am I missing something here? Why is everyone going on about a coalition, the Comox riding is going to swing Liberal when the Absentee Ballots are counted from CFB Comox where Liberal candidate Jim Benninger is a former CFB Comox member. This gives the Liberals a majority government. Done. Over.

    1. From what I have read, there is no particular reason for the absentee ballots to come disproportionately from the base, as most of the votes from people serving there have already been counted. In the 2013 election, absentee ballots in that riding favoured the NDP. I don’t think there is any reason to think that the riding is more likely to swing one way or the other.

    2. A majority of one, or even two, does not mean it’s done. Or over. It means the government will stand as long as it can whip all its MLAs to attend every budget or confidence vote, let alone to vote on legislation on several important issues. Doable. Possible. But not guaranteed to last four — or even two — years.
      This is why it’s necessary for the NDP and Greens to talk today, then talk again tomorrow about the future.

    3. If you haven’t seen it, a UBC economics professor has used the 2013 election results as a basis for running simulations for absentee ballots in the 2017 election. The simulation produces only a 10% chance of a Liberal majority, a 6% chance of an NDP minority, and a 23% chance of a tie:
      https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6aojjz/distribution_of_possible_bc_election_outcomes/
      (There’s a link to his Twitter feed if you want more information.)
      The analysis assumes that the 2013 results are representative, and it does not take into account particular features of the close ridings (such as the base at Comox). It’s hard to say whether those are reasonable assumptions.

  2. Thanks Geof and Alex. To be clear I despise the Liberals and CC, I am just so frustrated and tired of false hopes. Where was the protest vote like Alberta had putting Notley into power by a landslide? We couldn’t even manage to give this corrupt government the heave ho. Mason sums the corruption up best:
    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-greens-could-clean-bcs-dirty-political-ecosystem/article34958842/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

    1. Because not everyone agrees with your opinion of a needed heave ho. Some actually like job growth, GDP growth, new infrastructure to remove traffic jams, new green electricity producing dams, low taxes, low debt and spending constraint. The economy is in good shape. To many people that actually matters, or more than other issues.
      In any case we will see more cooperation. If not a majority after re-count or absentee ballots here is my prediction: Christy Clark will remain Premier for 3-4 months and then in the fall will be sacrificed on the altar of global warming as NDP plus Greens amend BC Elections Act to allow for proportional representation which the Liberals bitterly oppose. Cancellation of Site C dam, oil pipelines and Massey Bridge, minimum wage of $15/h, unsustainable wage & benefit hikes for civil servants, tax hikes and more debt all likely to happen the next 2-3 years.
      Continued strategy of preferring takers over makers all in the name of social justice, equality, fairness and of course, the environment. There is no price too high here to pay.
      The result: rising unemployment, falling net wages, falling housing affordability, higher taxes and massive debt accumulation as shown successfully first in ON, then in AB and now in BC too !!
      BC all of a sudden has become a far more risky place to invest ! Billions will be re-invested elsewhere. Billions. And that always, always affects jobs and the economy.

      1. An autistic chimp could have lead this economy for the last 4 years. Its called Chinese money, not Liberal brainpower. Get over it

        1. Tons of E-Indian and “Persian money here too, plus folks from AB, SK, ON retiring here .. plus LNG $s .. plus US $s .. not so simple.
          A retired academic trained in climate “science” holding the balance of power is truly scary for investors .. as the outcomes on law, taxation, debt and rights are utterly unknown and may change at a whim.
          An “autistic chimp” at least provides stability and that is what investors are looking for. This is now at risk, and thus billions of $s of investment, and thus jobs !! I do get it that that is not that important to NDP and Greens despite their lofty words.

        2. The German economy is stronger than ever decades after the Green Party held the balance of power with the Social Democrats. In fact, Germany has lured many high tech renewable energy R&D and commercial alternative energy enterprises from Canada and other nations.
          If you want to claim BC is a failure weeks before anyone forms a government, then so is Germany. And Denmark too. All failures. Your comments remind me of the rabid statements by the private sector when Tommy Douglas initiated North America’s first public, single-payer health insurance system in Saskatchewan in 1962 while in the midst of bringing down 21 consecutive balanced budgets. This inspired the federal NDP to “force” this policy onto Lester Pearson’s minority government on a national scale. By your definition, Thomas, we are a failed nation as a result.

      2. Christy Clark will likely be sacrificed by fellow party members on the alter in her own BC Lib cathedral. Kevin falcon started that process only three days after their diminishment. Gawd knows how many others will speak up now.
        The rest of Thomas’s diatribe is just the same worn out fearmongering and propaganda that doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. It’s pretty tattered and faded.

        1. But it’s true. An NDP government ( anywhere, not just BC) will result in higher taxes, even more debt, less investment, falling net wages, rising unemployment and worsening housing affordability. Reshuffling of $s from makers to takers. Makers will invest elsewhere and keep their purses shut.

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