Predictions for ’22: Tipping Point for S-F Zoning, Van Plan Pan

It’s that time of year: making predictions for the rest of the year.  (Add your own or links to others in the Comments.)

Toronto ‘city builder’ blogger Brandon Donnelly has listed his here – and this is the one that jumps out:

We will see meaningful efforts to further breakdown the hegemony of single-family zoning throughout many North American cities. This has been building for a number of years and I think we will see some tipping point-like moments in 2022. Specifically, expanded permissions for multi-unit housing and greater densities.

Vancouver will have its opportunity with the release (and presumably a vote) on the city-wide Vancouver Plan.

My prediction for the plan: A Nothing Burger.  Council has already passed what will likely be the only substantive change:

The rest will be aspirational, perhaps a consolidation of some policies, and of course, recommendations for more consultation.  But a map that shows you how and where your neighbourhood will change – forget it.  As a great way to mobilize opposition in an election year, not gonna happen.

What a waste of millions of dollars, time and expectations to do something that Vancouver does effectively through its neighbourhood and corridor planning processes and issue-specific policy development – like we’ve been doing for the last half century.

But of course it’s not equitable, or achieves equity of outcome.  Predictably, that’s not going to happen either.