You are not hearing a lot in the press about the Tsawwassen Mills Mega Mall, built by the Quebec Ivanhoe Cambridge. Ivanhoe Cambridge is the real estate arm of the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec, which is the institutional fund manager for the Quebec pension plan and other Quebec pension investors. In terms of assets, Ivanhoe Cambridge reported investments of $55 billion dollars at the end of 2015. That’s the equivalent of four proposed Massey Bridges with carrying costs, with an extra 3/4 of a bridge thrown in.
Tsawwassen Mills is similar to the other two mega malls in this Quebec pension fund’s stable, Cross Iron Mills near Calgary and Vaughan Mills near Toronto. The advertising is the same, the layout is the same, and very similar retailers. This concept may be working in the other two places-but in Vancouver? Not so much. Last night there were 18 cars in a section of a parking lot for 400. The stores during the week are empty. There is no one walking around the mall. Employees and carless shoppers huddle out to mean concrete strips on Highway 17 for direct bus routes to and from the mall, instead of waiting for the bus that meanders through the roads. There is no density close by to fortify the mall, and a lot of locals furtively go there when necessary, preferring to patronize their local merchants in Tsawwassen and Ladner. There may be life and a comforting diversity of folks there on the weekends-on the weekdays, there is no joy and no buzz. For a generation of younger on-line shoppers who can also zip to the USA for a day of shopping, it’s just not that appealing, nor easily accessible.
Warren Buffett in the Business Insider in an article written by Hayley Peterson is calling it quits on the retailing industry in the United States. As Price Tags has previously written, Canadians are a little behind the times on the online trends. Buffett sees the next decade as being completely transformative, and that the new retail is on-line.
“The department store is online now…I have no illusion that 10 years from now will look the same as today, and there will be a few things along the way that surprise us,” he said. “The world has evolved, and it’s going to keep evolving, but the speed is increasing.”
Buffett has also sold $900 million of Walmart stock, choosing instead to invest billions in airlines. This was an interesting strategy in that Walmart is morphing itself to catch up with Amazon, the major on-line retailer.
“Brick-and-mortar retailers have announced more than 3,200 store closures so far this year, and Credit Suisse analysts expect that number to increase to more than 8,600 before the end of the year. For comparison, 6,163 stores shut down in 2008, the worst year for closures on record. Stores are closing because of the rise of e-commerce and shifts in how people spend their money. Shoppers are devoting bigger shares of their wallets to entertainment, restaurants, and technology and spending less on clothing and accessories.”
Cohen & Steers released a report last week on asset management which is their specialty. “We see this retail weakness, which is occurring despite a relatively healthy economy, as part of a permanent evolution in how and where Americans spend their money,” the firm, which manages $58.5 billion in assets, said in the report. “We expect the paradigm shift taking place to dramatically alter the retail landscape, with potentially significant implications for real estate investors.”
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Reblogged this on Sandy James Planner.
Losing malls doesn’t worry me; losing street life does. What would streets like Commercial Drive, Hastings, or Main be like without retail?
It seems to me that losing shopping to the privacy of the home threatens to impoverish the public realm. The Internet would hollow out urban community, just as television, the automobile, and air conditioning did before it.
Not that I particularly want city life to revolve around shopping: but the reality is that much of it does. Cafes and restaurants could occupy some of the vacated social space, but how much? (And while I like many of those spaces, I don’t much like those services – home cooking is cheaper, healthier and of higher quality.)
I would love to see more and better public spaces to just *be*, like libraries and parks, but the efficiency gains of online shopping are hardly going to be captured by governments – nor do I think that governments alone can or should construct our social spaces. (I actually would like to see more commercial activity in public parks, for instance – cafes and food stands, in particular.)
Jane Jacobs’ streets are enlivened because people are pulled through them by diverse goal-driven activities. With more and more of those activities being privatized (in the case of mobile phones, even when people are physically present), how can public life exist?
Tsawassen Mills like its US exurban brethren, is just a little “too far away” to be successful. Other suburban malls like Metrotown, Park Royal and Richmond Centre seem to be busy. I wonder if Canada will ever have as a high a penetration of online retailing – duty and shipping make US orders expensive. And if it doesn’t fit right, its expensive to return.
The most likely reason Tsawwassen Mills doesn’t seem to be performing well is “location, location and location.” The District Municipality of Delta has a population of ~115,000. Fewer than half are situated in Ladner and Tsawwassen, the two parts of the larger community served by this Mall. Moreover, the Mall is located on the edge of these two communities. While the Tsawwassen First Nation is developing many of its lands residentially, it’s going to be a long time before population is going to be at levels generally served by a mall of this size.
In the meantime, I’d implore folks to explore shopping in Ladner. It has the street life and scale that Geoff above would enjoy experiencing.
Editor’s note: Tsawwassen has some wonderful retailing on their “downtown with the palm trees” 56th Street too, and several very good restaurants.
I suspect that urban high streets will continue to improve and become more popular as they (mostly) have through the advent on online shopping. I would stop using the term “bricks and mortar” for the demise of a physical presence as those buildings are likely to do well. How about the demise of “tilt-up concrete”?
I’m surprised that the mall is open til 9pm on 6 days a week Monday-Saturday.
Historically, suburban malls are only open during the day and Thursday and Friday nights (and Thursday is usually pretty quiet). Lansdowne Centre follows this schedule.
Park Royal (Larco) is open Mon & Tues til 7pm, Wed-Friday til 9pm and close early on weekends.
Likewise for “Downtown” Pacific Centre (Cadillac Fairview), “in the City” Oakridge Centre (Ivanhoe Cambridge, but being sold), Richmond Centre (Cadillac Fairview) and Coquitlam Centre (Morguard).
Metropolis at Metrotown (on SkyTrain) and Guildford Town Centre (not on SkyTrain)are both open til 9pm Monday – Saturday. Both also Ivanhoe Cambridge.
So maybe the hours are an Ivanhoe Cambridge oddity.
I haven’t seen anything yet to counter my belief that Tsawwassen Mills was an ill-advised gamble.