March 17, 2015

Motordom Fail: An Auckland Crossing

Another chart to add to the collection in ‘Motordom Fail: Traffic Forecasting.’

From Auckland’s Transport Blog:

Govt say new $4-6b harbour crossing timing depends on predicted traffic growth, here’s the last prediction vs actual



It’s not quite clear whether, in light of this, the NZ government is putting a new Waitemata crossing on hold.  Auckland?

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  1. That projection was made in 2010 and used a base year of 2008. Despite the actual data being available those responsible for it used the traffic volumes out of a model. Willful ignorance or deliberate deception? I lean towards the latter as we’ve heard that even up to last year some of those on the board of directors weren’t aware traffic volumes had fallen.

    One of the key reasons for traffic volumes not growing has been the introduction of a busway leading to the bridge. During the morning peak now up to 40% of people are crossing the bridge on a bus, up from 18% less than a decade ago.

    And no a new crossing (will be a tunnel) is not on hold. It’s being pushed along by the same government who are delaying a rail tunnel designed to double the capacity and dramatically reduce travel time on our rail network that is currently growing at around 20% per annum.

  2. What strikes me is that even the optimistic projections show that a second crossing is barely needed even in 2036. If proponents using inaccurate forecasts can’t even justify construction then why is it even being considered?