Once the Compass card is rolled out, and we’re all tapping in and tapping out, something very interesting could happen: algorithms could infer the real-time state of the transit system merely from the people entering and exiting the system, creating a digital replica of the city’s transportation network, like this:
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That’s according to this story in The Atlantic: The New Math of Subways.
The elegance of their system is that they don’t need complex data—they just need to know where people tapped in and out. And if they pile enough of those trips together, they can piece what’s happening in the system into a real-time visualization with the same accuracy, they say, as pre-existing methods for measuring a transportation system’s performance.
“Urban Engines’ work offers potentially revolutionary solutions for addressing the complex issue of commuter congestion through incentives and data-driven insights,” said Shomik Mehndiratta, the World Bank’s Lead Transport Specialist for Latin America.
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But on the way to the revolution, there is going to be some pain – and a lot of complaints about Compass, which TransLink has probably figured out.
My experience as a beta tester is probably indicative. I had little problem tapping in, but then, once aboard, reverted to habit, putting away my Compass card as I usually did with my pass, and then waited for the announcement of my stop while focussing instead on whatever I was reading.
The key word here is ‘habit’ – the way the brain conserves energy by reducing a regular sequence of events to rote. It’s how we drive, for instance – not having to concentrate on the actual repetitive mechanics so we can focus on the unusual or the unexpected.
The problem for me: tapping out was not habitual. So as soon as I heard the announcement, I went into panic mode, desperately trying to find the pass, looking for the pad, with people piling up behind, doors closing, bus beginning to pull away. Sometimes I just sprang out onto the street, realizing I’d pay a penalty when Compass was operational. And that happened several times, as my brain had to reprogram itself for a new habit.
I did not think more kindly of TransLink, even knowing that, in the end, this was a fairer and ultimately more convenient way to handle ticketing. Some argue that it’s more for the convenience of the system that for the people it serves, and it will initially seem that way.
But as the story above indicates, given the possibilities of what can be done with the data and the ability to run a more efficient system at less cost – a precondition before many people will consider raising taxes to fund more of it – the pain will likely be worth it.
I’ve been watching people tapping into the system and questioning whether their taps are actually being recorded. It’s hard to tell because the card (and whatever it’s in) covers the screen making it nearly impossible for an observer to tell whether the screen changed or not. Only some of the time is there an audible beep. I have to wonder if waving a wallet in the general direction of a reader is going to be the new norm for fare evasion.
My observation is that the readers seem to have far better uptime than before. It’s now quite unusual to see a reader displaying the red X, a blue screen or the Windows reboot sequence. Having said that I recently saw an entire articulated bus full of readers go red at the same time.
A system that requires you to both tap-in and tap-out is not just one that will produce better data (actual occupancy of every transit vehicle moment-by-moment) and know the end point of every ride (and be able to distinguish between destination points and transfer points). It will also be able to charge by the km and as well by the time-of-day (e.g., at congestion times).
As a senior in Ottawa, I was hoping our new Presto pass would have this feature to save seniors, who travel at off-peak and travel shorter distances, some money. But no such luck. The long-distance users will continue to be cross-subsidized by the short-trim, non-peak users.
Will Vancouver fares have such new differentiations?
Chris
“Will Vancouver fares have such new differentiations?”
It’s a possibility that the new technology brings – but it’s basically a political decision. The zone system is a very rough (but not always fair) attempt to do this. But pure distance-based pricing will, as usual, benefit some and penalize others. Whether or not it’s eventually implemented depends on whose voices are heard the most clearly.