The failure of the Golden Ears Bridge to meet its forecasted targets, resulting in a $30 to 40 million subsidy from TransLink, is a minor glitch compared to the case of Brisbane’s Clem 7 tunnel. (The backstory is here and here.) That tunnel is among several that have failed in Australia but arguably the most spectacular – and the repercussions are still coming in.
Here’s the latest update from Australian Broadcasting:
RiverCity Motorway Group, which built the tunnel, went into receivership in February last year, shortly after the road opened.
A $150 million class action involving Brisbane’s Clem7 tunnel has received financial support from a major litigation funder. IMF is backing the lawsuit against engineering consultants AECOM Australia (which) centres on a gap between the predicted and actual traffic volumes. … the lawsuit claims patronage on the Clem7 was less than a quarter of the original forecasts provided by AECOM. …
“This is the first class action that we have commenced against an engineering or traffic forecasting firm for this type of conduct and we believe it is the first type of class action in this area in Australia.”
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An additional note from the Sydney Morning Herald:
In striking parallels with other failed public-private projects such as Sydney’s Cross City and Lane Cove tunnels, the Brisbane tunnel failed to attract anywhere near the number of motorists that were forecast.
That was despite RiverCity using almost every means possible, including slashing tolls, to entice motorists to use the tunnel named after a former Brisbane lord mayor, Clem Jones.
Analysts had expected the tunnel to sell for less than $650 million (a fraction of the $3 billion it cost to build).
The 6.8-kilometre tollway includes a 4.8-kilometre tunnel linking roads on each side of the Brisbane River.
To be sure, the Clem7 is how a P3 should be done.
the risk is bone to the private sector…at the difference of the GEB, Port Mann bridge…
So, in the Clem7 case, a P3 works exactly as intended:
A bunch of people made an overly optimistic business case for an infrastructure, they got it wrong…and loose money:
The state got a asset at discounted price (or rather at the fair market value price)…
in the GEB case, a bunch of people at Translink and affiliated, made an overly optimistic business case for an infrastructure, they got it wrong…
Those people now made a ton of money, got thanks with a board position in one of the numerous Translink boards, where they decided that Translink should cut bus service to pay for the GEB… BTW, an asset priced at a very inflated price in the Translink book…
Who “made a ton of money, got thanks with a board position in one of the numerous Translink boards, where they decided that Translink should cut bus service to pay for the GEB.”? The public should know.
Keep your eyes on the Seattle downtown tunnel.
The latest proposal proposes a small toll to limit traffic diversion (toll avoidance).
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021898403_99tunneltollsxml.html
One problem with tolled “bypass” routes is that the driver does not have perfect information (and never will) – so there will always be a percentage that will avoid the toll and take the free route – and assume the risk of a delay. The other consideration is whether drivers will accept the cost of a toll to avoid delay on one part of a journey when there are so many other unpredictable aspects to a journey that can cause other delays on the same trip.
Toll avoidance is false economy yet people continue to engage in it. On one MSM website I read that a guy drives an extra 20 minutes per day to avoid the toll on the GEB.
Let’s look at what this is costing him to save $6.
1. Fuel. Based on his job description he probably drives a pickup truck and 20 minutes in a truck is going to burn 2-3L of fuel depending on type of driving. Assume he can fuel up for $1.20/L so the cost is ~$2.40-3.60 per day. Let’s call it $3.
So after buying gas his savings are down to $3.
2. Time. He spends 20 minutes to save $3 so he must value his time at less than $9/hour. Hmmm, that’s less than minimum wage.
3. Wear and tear: brutally hard to estimate, but it adds up.
Suddenly this guy doesn’t look very smart at all.
Smart is relative. Does he drive 60 km out of his way and pay for a Nexus card to fuel up in the USA?
The road infrastructure for long distance and truck traffic was lacking in MetroVancouver as the economy destroying NDP in the 1990’s failed to invest in the province .. and we are now just catching up with Golden Ears bridge, Port Mann bridge and South Delta Connector (Hwy 17).. once Patullo bridge is built and tolled, too .. and likely new Massey bridge too .. all bridges will hopefully collect a toll as they should .. Maple Ridge will expand in time .. and will get more traffic ..
We need investment in public transit AND road/bridge/tunnel infrastructure as Vancouver’s 30+ ports and the W-Canadian economy depend on it. Trucks that go to Alberta or SK don’t care about new buses or a subway.
We need both !
I am actually surprised how cheap the tolls are. They ought to go up 100%, as with more fuel-efficient vehicles, LNG trucks or e-cars the fuel tax alone is insufficient to pay for all this required infrastructure.
Anyone from Vancouver is encouraged to drive the brand new South Fraser Highway (Hwy 17) to see how much industrial activity there is south of the Fraser and that is where most of the industrial growth will be over the next few decades, and not just in organic soy bean latte sipping Vancouver.
MetroVan is a major industrial hub, and for that we need more truck & rail infrastructure, some tolled and some not.
Author
If we need both, then why are we voting, and putting at risk, only one? Since transit is needed now to handle demand and shape current growth, why are we proceeding first with infrastructure not needed for decades?
If this issue is about economic development and jobs, why the failure to immediately capitalize on ‘eds-and-meds’ – education and medical growth generators – along the Broadway/UBC corridor, while funding $61 million in the current budget as a preliminary cost for the Massey Bridge, which will only disperse growth inefficiently to our most valuable agricultural lands and most vulnerable flood-prone parts of the region?
This is Motordom by Default.