An increasing number of items in my Inbox deal with the Millennial generation – and the gap that exists between them and the Baby Boomers in particular. So we’ll now feature these stories regularly in a new ‘Annals.’
And like the others – Annals of Cycling, Walking, Transit and Motordom – PT welcomes your contributions.
_____________________________________________
.
WHY INCOMES COULD FALL FOR THE NEXT 30 YEARS
… demographic factors — which have largely aided the U.S. economy in the past — could end up pushing incomes down for the next 30 years or more. If other factors don’t force incomes up, we may be at the beginning of the longest period of economic decline in American history. …
The new study, which will be published as part of a Russell Sage Foundation book later this year, breaks down income trends since 1979 into various causal factors, then projects how demographic changes will affect median income through 2050.
The biggest factor helping to boost incomes between 1979 and 2000 was the growing percentage of women in the workforce, along with rising earnings for those women. Starting around 2000, however, the contribution of female workers to income growth plateaued. Around the same time, male earnings began to fall, detracting from income growth.
Two other trends will exert powerful influence on incomes in the future: the aging workforce and the growth of minorities—especially Hispanics —as a percentage of the overall population. As the baby boomers retire, the U.S. population will become top-heavy with a larger portion of lower-earning seniors. And since average earnings for blacks and Hispanics are lower than the national earnings average, the median income will fall as lower earners become a greater percentage of the workforce.
… The study only makes income projections relating to demographic changes. Other changes could either offset those income declines, or exacerbate them. Future tax hikes or cutbacks in Social Security—some combination of which seems likely, to deal with mounting government debt—would reduce income even more, for instance.
_____________________________________________
.
INTERGENERATIONAL INGENUITY: “Mixing Age Groups in Affordable Housing”
From Urban Land This Week: September 3, 2013
Age segregation is a silent and growing problem in the United States of the 21st century. In Portland, Oregon, a nonprofit organization has built an urban solution that addresses the problem of age segregation while brightening the prospects of families who adopt children out of the foster care system.
_____________________________________________
.
WHEN MILLENNIALS RULE, WILL TRAINS ROLL?
Jarrett Walker expresses an Opinion in SFGate:
For too long, we have built transit for a car-dominated world, presuming that transit’s benefits will be marginal and that its first obligation is to stay out of the way. … By 2040, when the Millennials are the ruling generation, there will be less patience for this unconscious bias. …
Our current generation of leaders grew up with cheap gas, “free” freeways, and abundant land for suburbia, with a concept of security formed by the Cold War. For Millennials, the issues are economic insecurity and climate change, and they’re telling us, in every way they can, that they are not as interested in cars. … It’s easy for older people to pretend that their kids are like they were at that age, but the Millennials are not like their parents. Their formative experience is different, and so are their priorities.
In 2040, the Millennials will sit in the power-seats of government and business. Sooner or later, the world, and the Bay Area, will be governed according to their priorities. So in the end, it comes back to one of the great human questions that every ruling generation has faced: Can you listen to your adult children, and honor the ways that they differ from you? Can you see the value in smoothing the path toward the world that they will rule? Or do you want only to slam on the brakes, protecting your own habits and assumptions?
_____________________________________________
