Frances Bula does a great overview piece on this region’s transit needs in The Globe – with a splash of fiscal water in the face.
But the big hurdle to overcome is dollars.
(TransLink VP Bob) Paddon’s team has calculated that, for the region to build every transit project needed to both serve existing populations (as on Broadway) and shape newer communities (as in Surrey), it would take $23-billion.
That would include the Vancouver and Surrey rapid-transit projects, rapid buses across the North Shore, from Port Coquitlam to Maple Ridge, and through Vancouver along Hastings Street and 41st and 49th avenues, a third SeaBus, more bus service in general south of the Fraser, and the gondola up Burnaby Mountain. Oh, and plus $5-billion to renew aging buses and rapid-transit cars.
It would cost $700-million a year more than the system needs now to make the loan payments on those improvements for 30 years, even with federal and provincial contributions. For the two rapid-transit lines alone: $500-million a year if senior governments didn’t contribute. For any of that to happen, the province will have to decide to turn on some new money taps.
How to come up with $700-million or $500-million?
TransLink would need some mixed-bag solution from its long list of possibilities – for example, a combination of a vehicle levy (at between $35 and $105 per vehicle, depending on kilometres and emissions, up to $200-million possible there), a regional carbon tax ($5.55 a tonne generates another $100-million), a regional sales tax ($50-million for each 0.1 per cent, so $250-million at half a per cent), a hotel tax of $1 a night ($10-million), a vehicle sales tax (1.8 per cent brings in $50-million) and a $1.60 regional toll at major water crossings ($100-million).
There you are, at $700-million, just like that – with an extra $10-million left over to throw a party.
Of course, you don’t get everything. But currently, there’s nothing. To repeat: the current TransLink Board is just in the business in of managing decline, the provincial Transportation Minister is playing divide-and-conquer on transit with the Mayors Council while pushing forward as fast as possible with highway infrastructure, and the NDP – nothing promised except consideration of new governance and some portion of a carbon tax. The B.C. Conservatives: tax breaks for drivers. The Greens: nothing specific. (In fact, try finding much of substance regarding transit in Metro on any of their websites. Good luck.)
This needs to be a much more high-profile election issue. Here’s your chance:
$23 billion equates to $6,764 per person for the population in Metro Vancouver that is projected for 2040 or $225 per person per year. As both residents and business profit from quality transit system and assuming that each pick up half of the cost, then it would add $405 per household to property tax at 1.8 persons per household. Now that does not seem too much considering that it costs around $10,000 per year to operate a car or $20,000 for two car families.
However, the $23 billion is vastly understated for a future metro area of 3.4 million. There should be a rapid transit service or LRT at the worst across the North Shore serving the ferry terminal and connecting into the rapid transit system in the downtown peninsula. There should be a rapid transit service or LRT at the worst connecting Maple Ridge to the municipalities along the way to the airport, the Tsawwassen ferry terminal, and to the US border. The commuter train system is just at a start and far from what is needed.
Compare the TransLink dream for the future to the systems in place in Toronto, a city of 2.7 million, or Montreal. Quickly, the shortfalls of the transit plan for the future are identified.
If we want a quality transit system, we need to step up along with the province and the feds and pay for it. The same goes for cycling for transportation and as part of Combined Mobility with transit.
The numbers don’t add up.
“Oh, and plus $5-billion to renew aging buses and rapid-transit cars.”
Translink has about 1300 buses. It recently ordered 25 60-foot buses and 17 40-foot buses for $28m. It would cost less than $900m to replace the entire bus fleet at this price and this very high ratio of 60-foot to 40-foot buses.
There are about 258 SkyTrain cars. The province recently ordered 28 skytrain cars for $91m. It could cost less than $850m to replace the entire SkyTrain fleet at this price, including replacing each Mark I car with a larger Mark II car.
It’s difficult to believe that it will cost $5b to renew the fleet when buying the entire fleet would cost about 1/3 that amount.
The $23b figure seems equally extravagant given the list of projects. The only way costs add up to $23b is by adding up the operating costs over 10 to 20 years, but the figure is made to read like a capital cost figure.