David Frum picks up on a report that assess key demographic trends in the U.S. housing market.
Significant observation:
Despite potential increases in new construction, most of the houses that seniors will release in coming years were built when energy was inexpensive, nuclear families were the rule, incomes were increasing for most Americans, and mortgages were generally predictable and easy to obtain.
Most observers expect the next 20 to 30 years to depart from this historic picture, with more expensive energy, growing diversity in race, ethnicity and in household structure, and more intense international economic competition.
All of these factors will likely reduce demand for large single-family homes on large lots far away from established centers of employment and entertainment.
Meanwhile, increasing uncertainty also applies to mortgage lending. In combination, these trends could limit the ability and desire of younger generations to buy some of the housing seniors will release in the next two decades.
