An occasional update on items from ‘Motordom‘ – the world of auto dominance.
TOLLS, P3s AND THE GOLDEN EARS BRIDGE
So, the Golden Ears Bridge isn’t getting the traffic expected. Is this another Clem7 situation – where over-optimistic projections fail to match with reality, and leave the government on the hook for the difference?
Voony thinks so. And he has other examples.
A “phony” forecast can be achieved by means of “strategic error” [2]. In the GEB example, we have already noticed the not only undesirable (from a sustainability viewpoint) but also unrealistic linear and infinite growth in car ownership and vehicular traffic.
More, the GEB forecast [3] takes account of all the contributive investment inducing more traffic, like road widening, but carefully ignores the competitive ones, especially the already underplanned twinning of the Port Mann bridge [8]
Ironically, the Port Mann bridge twinning and all the Gateway projects in the Lower Mainland are grounded on the same flawed studies, sometimes provided by the same consultant [9], which have proved wildly inaccurate…
That doesn’t prevent the province proceeding full steam ahead …
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METAPHORS
The fast-motion shots of freeway traffic in Koyaanisqatsi evoke the visual metaphor of blood cells in veins and arteries.
Check out this fascinating video of “every bus vehicle arrival at every stop in the Portland area transit system over from 4AM to 12-midnight on a weekday.”
Ants, anyone?
“More, the GEB forecast [3] takes account of all the contributive investment inducing more traffic, like road widening, but carefully ignores the competitive ones, especially the already underplanned twinning of the Port Mann bridge [8]”
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It’s a clever game really. If a road or bridge project in its early stages has low traffic volumes, the complaint is that it’s clearly surplus capacity that should not have been built. If the volumes are higher than expected, state that induced demand effects will soon clog the facility leaving one no better off than before, … but with a bigger lineup. Got em either way! LOL
If people had a choice between paying the Canada Line fare and taking an alternate route for free that gets them to the same destination, Canada Line ridership would be substantially lower. That’s how it is now: instead of taking the tolled Golden Ears, they’re just going over the Port Mann and Pitt River bridges. Watch what happens to Golden Ears usage when the new, tolled Port Mann Bridge opens.
And keep in mind the Golden Ears was not built merely to serve current usage. The areas on both sides are relatively underdeveloped, but they’re growing very quickly (keep in mind that approximately 35,000 immigrants from around the world arrive to B.C. each year), and the Golden Ears was overbuilt to anticipate that. The Canada Line, on the other hand, was built only to handle current demand, and you can see the results of that every time you get on a packed train.