Funding Showdown – Part 1

My latest Business in Vancouver column:

Is TransLink going to be put on life support?

According to insiders, that may be the only realistic choice.

When TransLink developed its 10-year plan for 2010, it laid out what would be needed to meet the challenges of a sustainable region.

But if the Metro region was to be “on track to a sustainable region” (as one of the choices was called), it required about a half-billion-dollar addition in annual funding. At the other end was the base plan – dubbed “drastic cuts” – which would eviscerate existing service.

Two choices, both dubious. As one of Vancouver’s city managers said as he described how he framed his recommendations to council: “You give ‘em two leper colonies and a Club Med.”

Martin Crilly, the TransLink commissioner who reviewed the plan, dismissed the big-budget “on- track” option because there weren’t identified funding sources. “Drastic cuts” were seen as just that: too drastic. Then he turned to Club Med.

At this point, he came up with two recommendation Bs:

•Option 2.1 (funding stabilization) didn’t need any “nasties” – no vehicle levy, no tolls on bridges, no new taxes. The amount needed – another $130 million annually – could come from sources like the gas tax. It would barely maintain services, require cuts in the organization and maybe buy some time. There was no room in there for any big additions like the Evergreen Line.

•Option 2.2 (maintain and upgrade) would require $275 million more. More service, more improvements, more SkyTrain cars. But it called for a vehicle levy to pay for it. One of the nasties.

Crilly tabled his report without choosing a preferred option. The appointed TransLink board, after supporting “on track” in principle, also voted to recommend to the mayors’ council that they go with “funding stabilization” as a fallback.

Now the moment of truth is close to arrival. By the end of October, the mayors’ council has to decide which of the four choices to take, recognizing that there are really only two. For some, there’s only one: “funding stabilization.” Hang on, tighten up, build relationships and hope for better things tomorrow.

But there’s a problem with funding stabilization. Even though it doesn’t require the province to approve any of the nasties, it also doesn’t include the Evergreen Line, the much-promised rapid transit to the region’s northeast. And the province really wants the Evergreen Line. There’s also federal money on the table for it that no one wants to lose.

Once again, TransLink gets squeezed. The province – whether left or right, NDP or Liberal – always encourages the study but never the implementation of options like vehicle levies or regional tolling. In principle, yes, but in practice, never. And in this time of the HST, the provincial government isn’t likely to embrace a new or increased tax to fund TransLink.

The region’s mayors believe the province wants them to tap their property tax instead. The mayors don’t think that’s a good idea at all. So an impasse – or worse.

Those hoping to avoid the carnage of an ugly clash hope that the politicians will agree to approve the minimum needed to keep the organization going, and then try to get everyone on board for some new strategy, some new way of getting money. But it’s hard to escape the conclusion that we as a region, as a province, are not fundamentally serious about our best intentions. We have aspirations – and plans to achieve them – but no will.

Amazingly, the mayors have stayed largely united. Many think the public is ready for a sea change and are prepared to support “on track” and its half-billion-dollar price tag. Some are talking seriously of road pricing – i.e. tolls – even on bridges and roads in their part of the region.

But that ugly clash is still a possibility. Some of the mayors are threatening to vote for the “drastic cuts” option – a 40% cut in transit service – and then throw TransLink back to the province to run. It’ll be Victoria’s problem then, and possibly the end of TransLink.

In the end, the Evergreen Line will likely be funded as a stand-alone operation, regardless of the long-term impacts on TransLink. There will, of course, be fare increases. It’s easy to get a consensus on that. Only Crilly stands in the way of automatic boosts.

And we’re likely to see more roads and bridges in our future, if not the transit. Big roads and bridges, most recently the Golden Ears and Pitt River, get built as if on command, shaping the eastern region and south of the Fraser, making transit even more expensive and ineffective.

The Metro region’s future now hangs in the balance. In the next month, we’ll see whether the province says it’s prepared to come to the table with a realistic funding option – one of those nasties – to pay for transit. Or whether the mayors will bring the property tax to that table, and then whether there really has been a sea change in the public attitude.