If ever there was a year that threw out most predictions, this is the one. On November 20, 2020, what do we know will happen by this time next year? We are asking readers to let us know.
We are all nine months into living differently and working from home. Everyone knows what a Zoom meeting is. We worry how public transit will survive, keep six feet apart from people we don’t know for physical distancing, and think about wearing masks and washing hands a lot.
Nine months in there are also some surprises. Even though there are less people that have secure salaries, and the borders are closed housing prices in Vancouver have still stayed constant, perhaps reflecting the last flurry of activity before mortgage rates and lending tighten up.
But what will things be like one year from now on 11.20.2021?
That was the subject of conversation at a physically distanced meal at the legendary Pink Pearl restaurant on East Hastings with the Duke of Data, Simon Fraser University’s Director of the City Program Andy Yan.
Take a look at the predictive predilections forecast over dim sum at the Pink Pearl Restaurant on East Hastings below.
Agree or disagree?
Now is the time to offer your own predictions in the comments section.
What changes do you perceive will happen by this time next year?
We will of course take a look at all the predictive predilections, and invite you to a Dim Sum predilection party to discuss what was forecast/what really happened to be held at the Pink Pearl restaurant in one year.
Here’s our 2020 Dim Sum Predilections for 2021:
Clothing Culture~ Just as a hoodie is the “go to” item in winter, wearing a mask will be the new winter pants. Mask wearing will be universal, adopted out of respect and courtesy for others.
Vaccinations~By November 20, 2021, not everyone will be fully vaccinated. There will be about 75 percent of people who could/would be vaccinated that have received the doses in Canada. How the vaccines are administered will be a challenge. They will be easy to obtain in metropolitan areas, but vaccines will not have the same easy access and distribution across less populous areas of the country.
Return to work and the concept of Time Shifting/Flex Locations~While people will return to working in offices, where those offices are, the size and the routine of going to work will be different. Many people will not return to a typical Monday to Friday commute, which will impact public transit usage. About 30 percent of people that used to commute to offices downtown will remain at home, going into the office once or twice a week instead of every day. Sixty percent of workers will still need to commute downtown for their jobs; 40 percent will have the flexibility to do some of their work at home.
Transit versus Car~Public transit will also be competing with an increase in private car usage as that will be perceived “safer” by some people, resulting in a five percent increase in vehicular use going into the downtown. Public transit will be down by 20 percent in ridership.
Housing Prices~there are a lot of factors that will impact the prices of single family housing, rowhouses and condos. Prices may also vary by regional location. We are leaving this predilection up to readers to let us know where, when and why you think housing prices will go a certain way.
Rental costs~Rent for apartments will reduce by 10 to 15 percent. Rents have been attached to the economic vibrancy of the region more than home ownership has. There will be more availability as empty higher end strata units come on to the rental market. Basement suites in single family houses with outside decks and access areas may be a preferred short-term premium, offering private access and open space away from apartment building shared halls and elevators. More rental stock will be also be available from empty AirBnb units.
Local Economy~Restaurants, hotels and the travel industry will need to reboot, reformat, reconfigure , and will focus on a more local “in province” market. Growing the local market will be factor for these businesses to revitalize for the next five years.
Regulatory Policy Changes~Acceptance of health and wellness in regulation will mean the consideration of physical wellbeing, including mental and social. Policy will change around the housing and well being of seniors, emphasizing aging well and on call associated services.
Changes in living unit design~People will be looking for housing that has more interior private space with a spare room with a window that can double as an office. If an apartment, a juliet balcony or small deck will be in demand. Access to exterior outside hallways and staircases in addition to exterior outside elevators will be bonuses. Opening windows that can be adjusted for ventilation will feature in building design.
Seniors and where they live~A more localized community approach to keep seniors in home longer, and a restructuring of how family caregivers can access family in facilities will be key. Look for changes in building design, with units being designed at ground with protected open space access and good ventilation and light. A more universal systems approach to providing seniors and others in care to privacy, open space, and the ability to access family members and caregivers safely will factor in restructuring and rebuilding assisted living facilities.
What are your predictions for next November? What have we missed and what needs to be added on to or accentuated? Please leave your comments below.
If you contribute to this discussion, we will be looking forward to meeting with you over dim sum at the Pink Pearl restaurant in November 2021.
Dim Sum Image: Andy Yan, Pink Pearl Restaurant
Transit vs Car. Transit ridership will not recover till 2024/5. In Nov. 2021 there will be more than 20% reductition.
Transit ridership in Nov. 2020 is about 60% down compared to pre-COVID levels. If post-secondary schools open in Sept. 2020 then transit ridership will increase. I predict that by Nov. 2021 ridership will be down around 40% COMPARE TO PRE-COVID.
If TransLink really wants to increase ridership they should implement many projects NOW instead of waiting for Sept. 2022.
There will be a boom in services that allow aging seniors to continue to live at home. The condo market in major Canadian cities will crash, spring 2021 because of the end of the mortgage deferral program unless the government intervenes in the real estate market … yet again.
The knee-jerk over fear of the dense city will have passed and people will see where the worst outbreaks have occurred in our province. Since fewer and fewer will be able to afford the wealthy inner suburbs (or suburban lifestyles in general) there will be a strong split toward more urban and more rural/small town living. TOD will continue to do well and with it more people will walk and cycle even as transit itself recovers more slowly than hoped. It will still be down through 2021.
More people will value easy access to quality outdoor spaces and activities so much of the suburbs will lose their previous attraction.
There will be a lot of babies.
Masks will not become a big fashion statement.
Work from home will be popular among homebodies and many people at certain stages in their life will push to keep it a thing. But both younger and older people will be itching to get back to the social life of the office. That will make easy access to the office increasingly important, driving transit use and urban proximity upward. Congestion will remain as annoying as before and will find a similar equilibrium to pre Covid.
After all those divorces and separations the bar scene will be pushing to get past the distancing thing. But it will be a more mature nightlife among those who never did get fully digital. As soon as it can, live music will flourish. The end of 2021 will mark the beginning of the roaring 20s.
Youth will also drive a big resurgence in nightlife.
There will be serious talk about the end of cash.
There will be mask burning events.