This time of quarantine shows you can never adequately predict the future or where it will take you. Last week there were two excellent webinars hosted by Urban Logiq and Boston University’s School of Public Health looking at planning and social issues related to Covid-19. What these informed discussions provided was a guide to the new normal, and some measured predictions on the post Covid-19 city.
Director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University Andy Yan spoke in the Urban Logiq discussion. Andy sees the biggest change in the emergence of regular life is going to be spatial, with a “revitalization of localization” in a new interest in neighbourhoods.
“New urbanism” including the concept of all shops and services within a 15 to 20 minute walk/bike commute is not going to happen because it is the right thing to do, but because people have experienced the importance of those aspects in their neighbourhoods during the pandemic. This brings up the importance of municipal land use allowing for neighbourhood “corner store” retailing, for local grocery stores serving the immediate neighbourhood area.
Calling the current time the Covid “end of the beginning” Andy’s prediction is the Post-Covid city will influence spatial design and city use for “years and decades”. The “key to recovery” is increasing biomedical security. But think of it~who ever imagined biomedical safety would be a driver in how we think of and use cities?
Here are some main trends~redefining the working neighbourhood; reimagining seniors care as aging in place; new neighbourhood based vocations; new management styles; and a renewed interest in working from home.
Andy Yan perceives “the internet of neighbourhoods” as being a key driver in post-covid times, changing the paradigm of place from city focus to this finer level. This “revitalization of localism” addresses the vulnerability and fragility of the city in crisis, by creating smaller scale areas of independence and self reliance.
.The care model for seniors needs to be seriously rethought and I have written before about an Ipsos study that shows that 93 percent of homeowners over 65 intend to remain in their current homes. The Covid crisis in care homes, and the isolation experienced by seniors walled in during the pandemic is another factor making staying put more appealing.
And look for new work directions too. New skill sets will be in demand, including neighbourhood level nursing and health care, detail oriented grocery store stockists and delivery, and the importance of the “caring’ economy, taking care of the most vulnerable, the very young and the very old.
The gentle but consistent management style demonstrated by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Province’s Medical Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry signal a change in management style from dictatorial to one that inspires and influences. This style also emphasizes the importance of working in teams and in groups to accomplish tasks.
We’ve also done a pretty good job of adapting to working from home too, and that will be part of the shift of the post-covid city. I previously have written about Mario Canseco’s survey showing that 73% of Canadians expect to continue to work from home. Sixty-three percent think that more companies will be nixing business travel and promoting more online teleconferencing.
Andy Yan did use one of his “Yanisms” in describing the new lifelong learning education needed in the post-covid city as “not creating a wood axe, but having the nimbleness and flexibility of a swiss army knife”.
Of course there will also be stressors and changes for public transit and for the pre-Covid shops and services. Jeff Tumlin of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency has developed his list of eight best policies to reboot transit use and system trust. And while there is some federal aid for small businesses and storefronts, some like the ones on Granville Island are ineligible because of the federal jurisdiction.
You can take a look at the complete Logiq webinar which has been taped here.
Image: Vancouver Sun
Some trends in the city that can be observed:
Staying home.
Spatial distancing.
Smiling eyes and missing faces.
The designer face mask.
Essentials shopping.
Aging in place, not going to retirement / nursing homes.
Virtual University instruction.
Internet enabled remote working.
Online shopping and delivery.
Internet enabled home schooling.
Disappearance of the rush hour.
Disappearance of aircraft overhead.
Virtual travel on Google Earth and YouTube.
Disappearance of night life, cafés and restaurants.
Fewer people in the downtown core.
Blue skies, clean water, pure air.
Nature walks.
The conversation would not be complete without rethinking how we have allowed the elderly to have become warehoused, literally and figuratively.
The over arching public trend in response to covid-19 has ignited an economic movement away from the material world and into the the virtual world.
We have learned how little we really need in terms of essentials. We have learned how to meet those needs without leaving the safety of our homes via the internet. We have learned that working from home via the internet can be rewarding and can replace the commute. We have learned that family life and home schooling also has its’ rewards. We have learned how to cook, how to amuse ourselves, how to go for a walk or a bike ride, how to start new businesses.
The post covid-19 world could very well be managed from homes over the internet. The city may seem like one vast residential neighbourhood with no commuters and no rush hour at all.
Jolson, there is certainly some truth in what you say. But you reveal that your anti-city posts are biased by a dislike for direct personal contact. No doubt there are many homebodies who’d just as soon not be out and about among the dynamic shifting movements of friends and strangers in public places. The suburbs or further are well suited to them.
But most people like being around other people. They’d rather go to a bar or restaurant or picnic in a park than consume their favourite meal or drink in front of their computer. While work from home is attractive for some, even most of them are going to appreciate the times that face to face meetings are required or just getting out of the home for a coffee or lunch. Can you imagine the company Xmas party being over Zoom as a default? Probably what they most appreciate is the lack of their terrible commute. Maybe the upshot will be a lot more people reassessing their decision to move so far out of town.
For better or worse we like to be social:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-beaches-parks-crowds-coronavirus