Robin Chase of osmosys.org joins the discussion (debate?) on the impacts of AVs – autonomous vehicles. Her perspective is binary:
Self-driving cars are coming! Will their future deliver us a transportation heaven, or hellacious cities? How they impact labor, energy, land use, and tax revenue is in our hands.
I believe heaven resides first and foremost in planning and building walkable communities.
I tend to be pessimistic on AVs and see the Hell aspect as the more realistic outcome for quite a long time, especially as the AI bugs are being worked out live on the street with real people creating millions of potentially hazardous movement scenarios. Also, the circulating empties will be a powerful symbol of what’s wrong with this idea. I predict the question, Who ever thought this would become Heaven? will be asked all over at least until the technology stabilizes.
Human nature will probably be the most powerful limiting factor for AVs. Anyone who has accompanied an elder numerous times on HandiDART will understand the limitations of The Milk Run. The best route planners, automated or human, cannot avoid tampering with direct routes while having to deviate to pick up or drop off passengers. Direct route frequent transit will always offer the best option in these cases.
On the Canada Line or SkyTrain you are rocketing along so efficiently that you do not feel compelled to start a conversation with fellow passengers. The same applies to a less speedy bus. In a car with two strangers you will feel enormous social pressure to engage, or else be perceived as rude. In many cases that can be very rewarding and could lead to friendship or even romance. In too many cases strong perfume, obnoxiously loud and inane chattering into a cell phone, garlic eaters and radical political opinions can lead to avoidance behaviour, especially when the same people use the same service in your neighbourhood every day for months or years.
What happens when a driverless AV pulls up and the last passenger vomited in it just minutes prior?
The poor will never be able to afford an AV and will likely stick to the bus or walking.
Count be as unconvinced about Heaven.
Any invention, be it a knife, fire, rocket fuel, nuclear power, TV, cell phones or internet can have very positive and negative influences on society. As such AVs are no different. It allows freedom of movement, incl the impaired, the drunk, the driverlicence less and the very old and very young. It allows one to nod off while driving yet not cause accidents. It will allow longer commutes with less stress. It will allow a blend of transit options as the equivalent of TransLink emerges as the biggest owner of AVs for the last mile or less frequent routes or in off hours in MetroVan. It will reduce crashes and increase road safety.
We will also see many more hybrids or golf car type vehicles such as http://www.velometro.com now on trial at UBC. Or smaller city only up to 50 km/h EVs with AV features, i.e. a quieter city with less pollution. These mass produced “cars” will be far far cheaper and as such will become real options for transit, car sharing or cities. Even pizza delivery firms may use them.
Many benefits.
Given these many benefits, traffic will not be reduced but more automated. Road pricing models will still apply. Perhaps a ZOV (zero occupant vehicles) has to pay in even higher road toll than one with 1 or 4 people in it. We shall see.