Price Tags: Now that Gregor Robertson has withdrawn from the race (and Andrea Reimer, Geoff Meggs and George Affleck – so far), who’s likely to be a candidate? Here are my thoughts (plus SFU political scienctist David Moscrop’s), as reported in the Sun. (BTW, I’m not a political scientist nor an urban planner – but thanks for the compliments).
Gordon Price, a political scientist and former director of Simon Fraser University’s city program, said he doesn’t know who Vision will run, but expects the mayoral race to attract candidates from senior levels of government.
“It would certainly be an opportunity for someone who has a sufficient degree of charisma — an overused word, but I think appropriate here,” he said.
“Can you get people’s attention in a highly fragmented world in order to establish an identity for the party that people will park their vote with?”
Price, an NPA councillor from 1986-2002, said when the NPA’s Hector Bremner won a council seat in the October byelection — and was trailed by independent Jean Swanson and the Green party’s Pete Fry, with Vision far behind — the electorate demonstrated it was willing to “entertain and understand substantial policy ideas,” particularly those related to housing.
With Robertson leaving, “all parties are now going to be confronted with a kind of existential change in Vancouver,” he said. He believes Vision recognizes its “best-by date” has come and gone.
“You just accumulate this baggage and no matter whether you have a good record, all your people are going to see are the stains or the inadequacies,” he said.
SFU political scientist David Moscrop said he’d long considered Vision councillors Reimer and Geoff Meggs to be the top contenders among its councillors. However, with Reimer not running and Meggs taking a position as Premier John Horgan’s chief of staff last year, that’s no longer the case.
“Of course, 10 months is a long time in politics,” Moscrop said. “Things could change.”
He also expects the race to attract federal and provincial politicians, along with high-profile businesspeople.
“Especially since not only is this a high-profile city — an important domestic and global city — cities are becoming increasingly important, where more and more people live,” he said. “They’re going to play a huge role in housing, transportation, climate change — even health.”
Moscrop believes Vision can survive without Robertson, buoyed by incumbency and in spite of its “battle scars” and the electorate’s frustration with other issues that “may or may not have been its fault.”
“It would certainly be an opportunity for someone who has a sufficient degree of charisma — an overused word, but I think appropriate here,” he said.
“Can you get people’s attention in a highly fragmented world in order to establish an identity for the party that people will park their vote with?”
Price, an NPA councillor from 1986-2002, said when the NPA’s Hector Bremner won a council seat in the October byelection — and was trailed by independent Jean Swanson and the Green party’s Pete Fry, with Vision far behind — the electorate demonstrated it was willing to “entertain and understand substantial policy ideas,” particularly those related to housing.
With Robertson leaving, “all parties are now going to be confronted with a kind of existential change in Vancouver,” he said. He believes Vision recognizes its “best-by date” has come and gone.
“You just accumulate this baggage and no matter whether you have a good record, all your people are going to see are the stains or the inadequacies,” he said.
SFU political scientist David Moscrop said he’d long considered Vision councillors Reimer and Geoff Meggs to be the top contenders among its councillors. However, with Reimer not running and Meggs taking a position as Premier John Horgan’s chief of staff last year, that’s no longer the case.
“Of course, 10 months is a long time in politics,” Moscrop said. “Things could change.”
He also expects the race to attract federal and provincial politicians, along with high-profile businesspeople.
“Especially since not only is this a high-profile city — an important domestic and global city — cities are becoming increasingly important, where more and more people live,” he said. “They’re going to play a huge role in housing, transportation, climate change — even health.”
Moscrop believes Vision can survive without Robertson, buoyed by incumbency and in spite of its “battle scars” and the electorate’s frustration with other issues that “may or may not have been its fault.”
A further thought: This is a good time for a woman to run with impetus and credibility not present to the same degree in elections past. (Imagine if someone like May Brown, a remarkable alderman in the TEAM council of the 1970s, ran today.)
There is always some spillover of American trends in the Canadian scene (though often not transferable to our electoral system). But a woman who represents the new empowerment of the #MeToo movement while both retaining Vision’s progressive constituency and building support from enough of the NPA electorate could be well-positioned to become Vancouver’s first female mayor. It’s time.
I would consider voting for Carol Taylor as an independent mayor — if she was still interested in politics. She was an independent councillor who occupied the vacuum in the centre between the left and right (COPE and the NPA) back in the day. She also did a credible job as BC’s finance minister and was able to negotiate a 5-year deal to ensure labour peace around the Olympics, something that Gordon Campbell couldn’t have done with the taint of unilaterally breaking contracts with the health unions (he lost the court case years later) and eroding education standards (he lost that court battle too).
Taylor may have to be actively recruited, but she offers the middle ground in political leanings, has loads of experience in private and public management, and has a depth of knowledge and gentle persuasion that could bring Vancouver’s left-right divisions together in a council consensus when it counts. I don’t see the same attributes with other candidates such as Kirk LaPoint who is platitude rich and policy starved.
I would think Mr. Bremner needs one or two terms on council to hone his skills, though he offers some good policies on housing. Elizabeth Ball may run for mayor but may be outcompeted by the NPA’s old and experienced political machine which may favour an outsider from the business community. I don’t think Ms. deGenova has a chance to become mayor.
The Greens overall still have too much fluff surrounding their kernels of solid policy, but I am willing to be persuaded if they offered more than just generalized if muted anti-development (and sometimes pro NIMBY) rhetoric that accompanies their good intentions.
COPE needs to come to the centre to rule, or they will see Friends of Larry Campbell again. They do make an exemplary, intelligent opposition and can cut through the mind-numbing BS and bureaucratese to uncover the real issue, and will often vote with councillors on the right if the issue at hand has a strong ethical foundation.
Remember that the paradigm has shifted under new electoral rules. Large corporate and union political donations are now banned. This will have a profound effect on advertising and messaging. Perhaps the current attrition was in part stimulated by the lack of campaign funds looming on the 2018 horizon. This will be the first election where no one party or individual can be accused of being in bed with developers and unions.
Hard to believe but Carole Taylor is 72 years old, not sure she would be interested at this stage of her life.