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Eric Larsen heads research in society and technology at Mercedes-Benz Research and Development in Sunnyvale, Calif. …
The suburbs are still very important. You hear about people moving back into Detroit, but the urban areas that are growing larger in size are in the South and West, and they are suburban-born. They have downtowns, but they’re empty at night. That has implications for transporting goods and people. …
Young people have had their adulthood postponed by the recession, but most of them will still get married and move to the suburbs. They want children, and they want home-based lives. They like to have space around them. They fill up a car with kids, dogs and stuff from big-box supply stores. That means people will still want big cars. …
… there will be privately shared vehicles. We have a business called Boost, where minivans drive children after school. They are like school buses, but door to door, and parents can track them with a phone app. They have a concierge as well as a driver, because the driver can’t leave the bus and walk the kid right to the door. A 7-year-old needs that. In this case, we’re selling a mobility service rather than a product.
Mostly, we don’t think people will give up their own cars. Americans like to do everything in the cars. They eat in cars, they drink in cars, they have entertainment in cars and they change clothes in cars — people who leave the office at lunch and sleep in their cars, or wait in their cars for an hour at a time for their children.
Driving is really the distracting thing we do in cars. …
What about electric cars?
This part of the model isn’t broken for most car owners. Fracking has been a strong influence, keeping gas prices low. Internal combustion engines are getting better mileage. Natural gas is cleaner burning and is easier to install from a technology point of view.
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Refueling with gasoline is five minutes, once a week. People have anxiety around running out of fuel with electric cars. Tesla is building out a network of fast charging stations. Cities are doing it too, with charging stations at a few spots in city garages. But if electric cars become popular, are they really going to put a charger in every space in the garage? …
Wealthy people want to show that they care about saving the world. The Prius was generally bought by people who could afford a more expensive car. Tesla put that in an even sexier package — you get a high-performance car and it’s green.
One of the challenges is that luxury wants to be heavy, with better seats, more safety features, more stuff in the car. Authenticity matters too. Wealthy people want things that are natural and handmade.
In our AMG model we have an idea of “One man, one engine,” with the name of the person who made the engine on it. Leather will never go out of shoes or handbags, and probably not cars.
There’s a constant back-and-forth. It’s hard to be rich without contradicting yourself.
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Is this meant to be funny — like the future is simply a re-run of the 1950’s ?
An Upton Sinclair quote comes to mind:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Considering that Eric Larsen works for Mercedes Benz, I’m not surprised in the least that his automobile-centred vision of the future is essentially what we have now, tweaked slightly to incorporate maturing technology.
Regarding electric cars, it is confounding to me that so many in the automobile industry are indifferent or outright hostile towards Tesla. Concerns about range anxiety certainly begin to recede when one considers that the even base model Tesla Model S can comfortably drive 385km per charge, and an optional battery pack upgrade adds another 50km. That is certainly sufficient for a week’s worth of urban driving before needing to charge up.
There’s a humorously-written ‘review’ of a gasoline-powered car making the rounds and the clever bit is that it is written from the perspective of a person who is used to driving an electric car (presumably a Tesla). It’s well worth the read. Here are the opening few paragraphs:
“Having heard so much good about petrol cars, we decided to test drive one. They are said to combine cheap price with long range and fast charging. A winning formula on paper – but how are they in real life?
[…]
So we sat in the car and pressed the START button. The car’s gasoline engine coughed to life and started to operate. One could hear the engine’s sound and the car’s whole body vibrated as if something was broken, but the seller assured us that everything was as it should. The car actually has an electric motor and a microscopically small battery, but they are only used to start the petrol engine – the electric motor does not drive the wheels. The petrol engine then uses a tank full of gasoline, a fossil liquid, to propel the car by exploding small drops of it. It is apparently the small explosions that you hear and feel when the engine is running.
The petrol engine consists of literally hundreds of moving parts that must have tolerance of hundredths of a millimeter to function. We begun to understand why it is car repair shops that sell the cars – they might hope for something to break in the car that they can mend?”
Continued: http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
The e-car range is grossly overstated when driving with a passenger or 3, in cold weather with hills. Let’s not confuse flat Lower Mainland or LA city driving with the majority of N-America !
E-cars have their place as a second vehicle, for short haul city trips or to show off one’s green conscience , but for 80%+ of people it is an impractical expensive range limited choice that will remain a niche car for decades outside of dense cities.
It’s the reality and choice for the majority not just in North America, but also Australia and other countries. Sometimes it pays to venture beyond the Point Grey Road bubble zone.
Get your motor running,
Head out on the highway,
Looking for adventure …
If this is their head of Research, I certainly hope their head of Strategy is a big personality and active foil to these thoughts, otherwise I don’t give Benz much of a chance in the future.
So they’re still trying to design the world so that they continue to make money.
Best start of the year in the company’s history for Mercedes-Benz with 125,865 vehicles sold in January (+13.6%).
Yesterday they launched a storage battery for domestic use. Orders being taken now for September delivery.
schlauerspeichern.de
Reblogged this on SalvoLomas and commented:
La auto dependencia persiste en la mente de la gente, y no disminuirá en un futuro próximo, estas de acuerdo?
So… something terrible happens in the future that means kids will need an adult chaperone between the school bus and the school?
The reality is that with driverless cars very few people will own cars. Cars will be an extension of the public transit and be considered more like a utility that links with PRT and other transportation options. Mercedes will be bankrupt.
At this point Daimler (Mercedes etc.) owns the largest car share company in the world (car2go) and is one of the largest truck manufacturers. Mercedes has the technology ready for driverless cars and it’s largely installed in high-end models. Other car manufacturers have more to worry about the future than Daimler.
Driverless cars are way way into the future (say 2050-2060+) due to enormous complexities and legalities. Cell phones were invested in the 1960’s, engineered in the 1970’s but really only in wide use in the 2000’s, and smartphones in the 2010’s .. 40-50 years later, and I’d argue a cell phone is a far simpler technology than a car on a complex road network in cities with kids running, dogs lose, bikers, traffic lights, weird intersections, trucks, buses and motorcycles all zipping around ..
Try 2020:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car
Considering how many people die because of non driverless cars I am sure governments are not going to disallow it for long.
Look at Uber. Not exactly rolling out as planned. 2020 ? Dream on. Only in small scale trials. Far too complex a technology with interfaces to other cars and people.
Are you an academic ?
No, I work in IT. Several companies are predicting to be autonomous by 2020 one or more of them will get it.
In 2020 we will have hands free driving in high end models like self parking today . Many more years from there with true robot cars without drivers. Look at the opposition to Ubet today. Do you think this will be different with robo-cars ? Certainly I welcome such cars as I prefer to be driven and read while someone else drives, be it wife or friend, or soon robot. But I may not see it in my lifetime on a mass scale. I am 55. We shall see. Complex human-technology system have many complex hurdles to overcome and what may work in a lab often takes decades to roll out into the real human ( flawed & complex & legal & unionized & working & practical ) world !
Thomas, I think you are 30 years out with your estimate.
I watched autonomous mining trucks working in 2009. There are lots out there running today. Lots of liability with mines (which don’t have constant roads, but evolving roads) and mining vehicles (carrying 400 tons). Google is running autonomous vehicles on public streets today. Ford, Mercedes, GM, Nissan, Continental, are all predicting mid 2020s. It won’t be all or nothing, it will be increased features (self parking, lane control, automatic speed control with radar, ++++) on the way to fully autonomous.
I like some of the features in the Mercedes F015, others I am not sure about. When it stops for a pedestrian, it projects the image of a crosswalk on the road to advise that it has stopped and that it is safe to cross. Driver or any one of the passengers can assume control from their own screen. The vehicle is pitched as a cocoon on wheels, with full connectivity. The driving is made irrelevant. And they didn’t announce it at a car show, but rather at the Consumer Electronic Show.
http://www.cnet.com/news/mercedes-benz-unveils-luxury-concept-self-driving-car/
I heard the same about speech recognition in the 1980’s. Look where we are with that today .. 30+ years later. It will evolve far slower than technogically possible due to the human and complexity factor including unions , city regulations, provincial laws, federal standards, legal issues and plain customs by millions of simple people.
I don’t think these groups are going to prevent a company like Modo or EVO from purchasing a driverless car.
Antje, that is a good point. However I don’t think they will be able to compete against Uber, Google, Apple and Tesla in this space. Already we see that Evo has a much better user experience than Car2go. They will have to think more like a Silicon Valley start-up and innovate really quickly. I just don’t think this old car company can do it.
I guess we’ll see about that old car company… hard to say without knowing all their investments. I believe they are also working on a Smart with Tesla battery technology. Regarding car2go and Evo, it was car2go that did the innovation and Evo copied the model.
Antje that is true, they were first to market. But soon driverless cars/car sharing will be more about the software and integration which means it will be a complete shift of expertise for the company. What’s under the hood will not be so important, it will be more about how you interact with the car. I just don’t see Mercedes being able to deliver that experience well.
Re: interaction with car, I recommend going to a Mercedes dealer and spending some time sitting in the car, playing with the screen, sensors and getting a massage. I am not saying Mercedes’ future is necessarily bright, but it seems most of the millions of cars likely made redundant in the US by driverless cars are probably Toyotas and Chevys.
Also another reason why Mercedes and other car companies would go bankrupt:
With Autonomous vehicles,
Columbia University’s The Earth Institute forecasts the reduction of United States’ fleet of vehicles by a factor of 10.[114]
PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts a reduction of traffic accidents by a factor of 10 and it concludes that the fleet of vehicles in the United States may collapse from 245 million to just 2.4 million.[115]
A socialist’s dream. Everything is shared. No more private property either. Sharing a room with 15 strangers is so much more economical. A large % of people will never use public transit, or never share a car. Ever. I think these estimates are complete BS.
If I have to choose between your prediction Thomas and PricewaterhouseCoopers (not exactly socialist) I will pick PWHC. It is going to happen.
Nobody knows what’s going to happen. But predictions are fun, and they reveal our biases.
That is true, they are fun. But one thing for certain is that it will happen the question is when.
MB has been around 125+ years. They own Car2Go. E-cars are overrated, due to price, distance limitation, weather limitations and toxidity of batteries. Hybrids are the way to go [I drive a hybrid] as the big battery runs the car on small distances or on command in teh city or when going slow at stop-and-go with traffic lights, while being charged when driving faster or further. Gasoline is ideal for transportation as it has the highest energy density around (besides nuclear power which is not practical for cars, only for large ships or large scale electricity production)
Gee, I didn’t know Nuclear wasn’t practical for cars. You learn something everyday!!
Check physical reality and energy density, Gasoline has 5-50 times the energy per kg or volume, a critical issue for transportation vehicles like cars, trucks, ships or planes.
Why do you think Canadian trains do not run on electricity like European trains do ?
We will see a renaissance of nuclear technology, perhaps even nuclear trains or trucks with all this anti-oil attitude due to globull warming.
Stored energy yes, but an electric engine can have a way higher output than a similarly sized combustion engine.
In Europe, trains move much faster since they’re passenger oriented. As such, freight trains must also move fast. Therefore they need the power output only that only electric motors can provide.
In NA freight is the driver behind railways. Most passenger trains have to travel to schedules optimized for freight trains which don’t move fast. As such, you have generally slower trains, which don’t need as much power as their European counterparts.
Diesel locomotives are generally below 5,000hp, while electrics can put down over 10,000hp. The big capital cost of a caternary is the problem.
Actually, the answer I was look for for was DISTANCE. Electric power diminishes if transported over vast distances. In Europe, there are far more cities and every few kilometers they can re-power the electric trains. That is why Europe has far more electric trains, whereas NA has very few. It is a function of distance.
Ditto with e-cars vs cars or trucks. Batteries are Ok for cities. Not so good for a trip from Vancouver to Kelowna, or God forbid, Calgary. Or for trucks. Or ships. or airplanes.
Wait, you think the distance to substations are the problem?
If you’ll notice, most of the power around here comes from rural areas. Its not that hard to install stepdown transformers whenever the rail line is near a high voltage line. I’d guess that hydro lines in BC almost always run parallel to the major rail lines, and due the topography cross fairly often.
Also, if you right higher voltage caternary systems then the line loss is smaller. 25 kV is pretty much how it’s done.
BC Rail even had an electric subdivison near Tumbler Ridge. That’s pretty rural.
The problem is that the rail lines don’t need a bump in capacity that faster trains provide.They barely need double tracking in a lot of North America. They just use long, slow trains. They’re cheap.
Thomas wrote: “Hybrids are the way to go [I drive a hybrid] as the big battery runs the car on small distances or on command in teh city or when going slow at stop-and-go with traffic lights, while being charged when driving faster or further. ”
I think that range-extended electric vehicles like the Chevy Volt are the best compromise. They run at full performance on 100% electric power – something the undersized electric motor and battery in a hybrid can’t do with decent acceleration or for any real distance. When the battery is empty they automatically switch over to gas. With typical urban driving patterns you get almost zero gas use while avoiding the “range anxiety” for longer trips that’s usually an issue with fully electric vehicles.
I own a hybrid today, but my next car is going to be a Volt or something like it. Some form of plug-in electric is extremely “green” here in BC where most of our electricity comes from renewable hydro power.
I also think the switch to driverless vehicles won’t take place quite as quickly as it’s promoters hope, but I could be wrong. Driverless or not, we still have to think about what’s the best way to power them.
Actually we import more power than export in terms of megawatts and we are importing coal and nuclear power from the USA. But from a dollars point of view we come up ahead by a wide margin because we can turn off and on our power quickly since we have hydro dams depending on the price of the power at the time. Coal fired power plans and Nuclear take days to turn off and on. So all our homes are on coal fired and nuclear powered power at night and non peak times and the hydro is not being used.
Gee, Thomas, I have been around for less than half that time and own a totally manual late model Japanese econobox. Sorry to disappoint!
I think he is bang on. He should have elaborated on driverless vehicles. Love to hear his view on that.
Mercedes are getting some terrific performance with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg’s hybrid cars.