March 3, 2015

Transit Preference: Myth, Reality and Perception

What is the difference between this:

BRT 1

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And this:

BRT 2

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From Eric Jaffe in CityLab:

The only real difference you’ll find, if you look very close, is the faint sign of tracks on the ground (in the second pic).

Given what we know from these two pictures alone, there’s no reason to suspect these two rides—modern Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or modern light rail—would be noticeably different experiences. And yet when transport scholars David Hensher and Corinne Mulley of the University of Sydney Business School showed these images to about 1,370 people in six Australian capital cities, the difference in preference was enormous. …

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Choice

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The results suggest, at a very superficial level, “that ‘bus’ has a relatively bad image, and that BRT suffers from its indirect association with bus, with a very high preference for non-bus images,” as Hensher and Mulley put it. So we might be tempted to conclude that people simply like trains more than buses. But as the rest of this study (and others) show, that simplified conclusion would be wrong.

The results, conclude the authors, underscore “the importance of exposure and experience in using public transport as conditioning preferences for bus and light rail options.” One reason they suspect Sydney residents gave buses the highest bus rankings, relative to other cities, is that service there has recently improved. In other words, people might indeed have an initial tendency to dislike the bus, but once they get on board and find it’s not so bad, those feelings start to change.

The findings echo a study from 2013 that also showed how transit service can matter more to riders than transit type. Analyzing 44 BRT systems and 57 light rail (and streetcar) systems, Graham Currie and Alexa Delbosc of Monash University in Australia found that the rail systems did, on average, carry more passengers. But once they adjusted for capacity, they found that routes with better service—features like higher frequency and integrated ticketing—”attract more ridership than low-service routes.” …

Barro points to the success of L.A.’s Orange Line, for instance, as evidence that “it is possible to overcome anti-bus bias with the right amenities and marketing.” But in doing so, he mistakes the Orange Line’s integral service improvements, such as high frequencies and dedicated lanes, for amenities at best or marketing ploys at worst, when in fact they represent a fundamentally stronger system. To suggest that reliable service and exclusive lanes are a product of savvy marketing is to suggest that Michael Jordan jumped high because Nike said so. …

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Orange

L.A. Orange Line

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So it’s possible that some people just love trains more than buses. But it’s equally likely, in many cases, that people have just used “trains” to mean “good transit” and “buses” to mean “bad transit.” If that’s the case, then marketing better buses as something like trains (or, at least, something other than buses) should weaken this automatic association. But such efforts will fall flat without meaningful investments in well-designed service: dedicated lanes, reliable peak and off-peak service, off-board fare payments, comfortable stations or enhanced shelters, or reconfigured routes, to start the list. A pretty picture alone isn’t enough.

Full article here.

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Comments

  1. I wonder if it’s too late for us to build BRT in Surrey…

    Maybe if they just branded some BRT as a Bus-LRT or something, it could get built?

    Regular LRT is so expensive, I actually wonder if it even has a positive net present value.

    This website doesn’t seem to think so:
    http://skytrainforsurrey.org/lrt-reality/#jp-carousel-5721

    If we were honest about building the best transit system for the money we have, I think many planners would admit the best bang-buck ratio comes from a combination of extending the Expo Line east and connecting Guildford to White Rock via Surrey Center with BRT. We shouldn’t build LRT just because it will supposedly encourage midrise development. Patrick Condon-esque magical thinking is a mistake.

    Looking at Portland’s LRT system is frankly shocking. The 3 billion dollar, 85 kilometer, 87 station system has a ridership of 121,000 per weekday. That’s about 12% less ridership than the 2 billion dollar, 19 kilometer, 16 station Canada Line.

    During peak hours, Portland’s LRT trains have a frequency of 10-15 minutes. Canada Line trains come every 3.5 minutes (and expo line trains every 90 seconds). The 99 B-Line bus comes every 1.5-3 minutes during peak hours.

    Not to mention getting from White Rock to New West would require 3 different technologies and two transfers (with potentially lengthy waits) under the LRT proposal.

    LOOK AT THIS STUDY! (The only one there is…)
    http://www.translink.ca/-/media/Documents/plans_and_projects/rapid_transit_projects/SRT/alternatives_evaluation/Surrey_Rapid_Transit_Study_Phase_2_Alternatives_Evaluation_Executive_Summary.pdf

    Compare LRT 1 (the mayors’ idea) with RRT 1a (Skytrain + BRT). The latter is about the same price as the former with about twice the new ridership, and 20% more total ridership in Surrey.

    Does this not worry anyone else? I know us transit advocates are supposed to be united in support for the plan, but I have reservations about the LRT proposal. Apparently the Yes side needs less head and more heart, but I feel I haven’t heard enough of either. Where are the numbers on this LRT plan? The only numbers I can find suggest it’s a very bad idea.

    You know this referendum is a disaster when even die-hard transit fans like myself are feeling ambivalent.

    Other sources:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MAX_Light_Rail
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Line

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