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January 8, 2015

Motordom Fail: Traffic Forecasting

The Transportationist has done a public service by putting in one place the failed traffic forecasting charts that have been used to justify massive overexpenditures on road infrastructure.

 

New Zealand:

Figure 2: Historic New Zealand light vehicle traffic forecasts vs actual growth Source: http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/keystrategiesandplans/strategic-policy-programme/future-demand/
Historic New Zealand light vehicle traffic forecasts vs actual growth. Source here.

.

United States:

U.S. DOT highway travel demand estimates continue to overshoot reality (SST By Eric SundquistI) http://www.ssti.us/2014/03/u-s-dot-highway-travel-demand-estimates-continue-to-overshoot-reality/
U.S. DOT highway travel demand estimates continue to overshoot reality. (SST By Eric Sundquist)

.

United Kingdom:

UK National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use Source: http://road.cc/content/news/137057-cycling-revolution-rolling-backwards’-according-figures-–-car-use-rise-still
UK National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use.  Source here.

.

Australia:

Are Australians driving more (or a lot less?) via Alan Davies
Are Australians driving more (or a lot less?) via Alan Davies

.

Portugal:

Source: http://www.estradasdeportugal.pt/index.php/pt/informacoes/estudos/871-concessoes-rodoviarias-um-novo-paradigma-operacional (Portuguese) via Marcos Paulo Schlickmann
(Portuguese) via Marcos Paulo Schlickmann.  Source here.

.

Washington State:

Washington State forecasts for SR-520. Source: Sightline Institute via https://wordpress.com/post/52773390/8048
Washington State forecasts for SR-520. Source: Sightline Institute

.

British Columbia:

Port Mann Bridge, British Columbia http://pricetags.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/sightline-british-columbias-traffic-delusion/
Port Mann Bridge, British Columbia. Source: Sightline Institute

 

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