November 19, 2014

Ohrn Words: Disruption on the Rooftop

One of several articles, this one recommended by Ohrn, on the impact of solar, now that the price has descended to truly competitive levels.

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From Computerworld:

Rooftop solar electricity on pace to beat coal, oil

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The cost of rooftop solar-powered electricity will be on par with prices for common coal or oil-powered generation in just two years — and the technology to produce it will only get cheaper.

The prediction, made by Deutsche Bank’s leading solar industry analyst, Vishal Shah, is part of a report on Vivint Solar, the nation’s second-biggest solar panel installer. Shah believes Vivint Solar is doing so well that it will double its sales each year for the next two years. …
The U.S. has lagged behind some other countries in progressive solar energy policies that have been successful in lowering soft costs of solar installations.

Germany, for example, instituted a generous feed-in tariff policy that guaranteed if a residence or business installed solar all the power produced would be purchased at a fixed rate for 20 years. This assurance facilitated a huge increase in installations which lead to massive price drops in solar energy costs.
“Germany decided to make a massive investment in solar even though they have relatively poor solar resources,” Ronen said, referring to the lack of sunny days in Northern Europe. “For example, Seattle is the worst place in the continental U.S. for solar. Germany’s worse than Seattle.” …
“The German experience shows that with motivated leaders and the right policies, even a country with relatively poor solar resources and a large industrial base can reliably and affordably integrate high levels of solar energy into their electricity mix,” Ronen said.

Deutsche said solar system prices in the U.S. are expected to decline from just under $3 per watts today, to under $2.50 per watt over the next 18 months, leading to a further decline in the price per kilowatt-hour of solar to 9-14 cents, “driving further acceleration in solar shipments.”

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Comments

  1. yes solar makes sense in many places .. but not in all.
    Germany has an average price per kwh of 30 Euro cents i.e. 40 cents in Can $s .. 5-7 fold that of BC !
    Very very expensive, as one has to add installation, maintenance and admin costs, too .. plus depreciation !

    1. You know, Thomas, it clearly doesn’t matter how often someone points you to irrefutable evidence proving you wrong, you’ll just continue repeating your well-worn, blinkered, and plain idiotic arguments about solar power and Germany.
      Never mind that the PV Feed-in Tariff for July 2014 in Germany is now between 12.88 Euro cents and 8.92 Eurocents per kWh, depending on the size of the PV system. Never mind that this same tariff is declining by 1%…per month. Never mind that this tariff is designed to cover the full cost of the system (panels, installation, maintenance, etc) and leave a minimum profit margin for owners of a PV installation.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed-in_tariffs_in_Germany
      If nothing else, I’m impressed by your stubborn refusal to accept a few simple facts.

      1. Still twice as high as BC .. another tax really in addition to excessive European taxes. Thanks for enlightening me to evolving facts. No need to be so snarky.
        Hydro is the ultimate green energy, and BC should do more of that. Yes, in AZ, CA, HI or TX it may make more sense.
        Should we encourage more solar power here: absolutely, but no need to subsidize it like Ontario did with their failed program. The government is already in far too many areas in BC that it should not be in: liquor distribution, insurance, electricity production, park maintenance .. luckily not yet as deep as in socialist Europe with their failing economies.

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