I confess, I’ve assumed that regardless of the hype about the revitalization of urban centres in the U.S., I’ve assumed that the majority of the population growth was still happening on the urban fringe, even if at a diminished rate since 2008.
According to a new report out of Rutgers University [PDF], I was wrong – at least with respect to the New York region.
From Streetsblog NYC:
The Fringes of the New York Region Are Shrinking
… since 2010, the fringes of the New York region have lost population as the core has grown, a reversal of the sprawling pattern that predominated starting in 1950, when the suburbs grew and the city shrank.
(The Rutgers report) compares regional growth between 1950 and 1980 to the three-year trend gleaned from the most recent available data, covering 2010 to 2013. Authors James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, and Joseph J. Seneca, a professor at the school, say recent shifts may signal the beginning of a long-term change toward more compact growth, while acknowledging that it’s too early to conclusively say so. …
The Rutgers report could be an early indication that a new chapter in regional growth is already underway..
(The Rutgers report) compares regional growth between 1950 and 1980 to the three-year trend gleaned from the most recent available data, covering 2010 to 2013. Authors James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, and Joseph J. Seneca, a professor at the school, say recent shifts may signal the beginning of a long-term change toward more compact growth, while acknowledging that it’s too early to conclusively say so. …
The Rutgers report could be an early indication that a new chapter in regional growth is already underway..
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The authors say it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why this demographic shift is happening, but cite quality-of-life improvements in the urban core, generational preferences, the high cost of long commutes, and the lower maintenance needs of denser housing in the urban core.
They raise two notes of caution, however, saying that ingrained incentives for car and home ownership, as well as underperforming school districts, could work against the demographic shift back to the core.
