October 9, 2013

Annals of the Generations – 3: Less driving … different real-estate priorities … and an apology

The gap between the generations.

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From Australia’s Crickey:

What’s really putting the brakes on Millennial’s driving?

How Sydneysiders travel, by age and region (source: Sydney Morning Herald)

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The Sydney Morning Herald published a neat graphic in the car section on the weekend illustrating how Sydneysiders aged 21-30 years are turning away from driving and increasing their use of public transport (Gen Y makes a sharp turn away from driving).

Ten years ago, people aged 21 to 30 in Sydney drove themselves on about 53 per cent of all trips on an average weekday. That share fell almost eight percentage points to 45.5 per cent in 2011-12. …

One of the better studies I’ve seen compares the trend in travel behaviour of young people in six industrialised countries over the last 20 years: Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, Norway and the USA. … The researchers say that since the turn of the millennium:

    • Access to cars, measured in terms of drivers’ licences and household car ownership, has decreased in most study countries—especially for young men.
    • Average daily car travel distance has decreased in most study countries, again especially for young men. Although not in all countries – young men now drive more in Norway.
    • Kilometres driven by millennial women also fell. However the fall was generally smaller than that for young men and wasn’t observed in all countries. In particular, there was barely any change in France and Japan.
    • One consequence is that American and German women of this generation now drive as much as their male counterparts. This is a turnaround from the nineties when young men in those countries drove noticeably more.
    • In France, Japan, and most significantly in the USA, the decrease in car travel has led to a reduction in total everyday travel (i.e. all modes) by young travellers.
    • In Great Britain, the decline in car travel by millennials was partly, and in Germany fully, compensated by an increased use of alternative modes of transport. However in France, Japan and (especially) the US, this was not the case – the decline in driving resulted in a fall in total travel.

… Contrary to the advice tendered to the Herald, the researchers think smart phones have negligible impact on the changes. I think that should be self-evident and have said so before (Is the iPhone why Gen Y love public transport?).

They also found that better public transport was an important explanation for the decline in driving in only two countries, Germany and the UK. It is especially important in Germany though, where the shift to other modes explains around a third of the decrease in car travel between 1998 and 2008 (they say the other two thirds is attributable to structural factors).

Dr David King from Columbia University’s Transportation Research Centre argues that the decline in driving and auto ownership in the US is unlikely to be related significantly to changes in land use or the built environment.

A decline in the utility of driving helps explain why we aren’t seeing the reduction in miles (km) travelled show up elsewhere. The trips not taken have not been replaced. They are mostly just forgone. While it is true that transit trips have increased while driving has declined, the increase in transit usage doesn’t come close to matching the reduction in auto travel.

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REAL ESTATE: DIFFERENT PRIORITIES

From Business in Vancouver:

A Century 21 survey found that Millennials:

  • are more than twice as likely as boomers to rank location as a top buying priority (33% versus 17%);
  • place a higher importance on a short commute time than do Boomers (46% versus 26%); and
  • are less likely to be concerned about having funds left over after a home purchase (18% versus 26%).

The survey also found that 45% of Boomers place a high priority of having access to services and amenities, while only 21% of Millennials stated this wasimportant to them.  In addition, Boomers report being more concerned with feeling a sense of community in the area in which they purchase, with 15% ranking this as important. Only 10% of Millennials see this as a priority.

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AN APOLOGY FROM THE MILLENNIALS

They know they suck – at least the American Millennials in this video:

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