Call it the Golden Ears Bridge phenomenon, in which toll revenue based on forecasted (and unrealized) traffic is overestimated, resulting in more needed subsidies from government. But this is not unique to this part of the Pacific Northwest. Once again, Clark Derry-Williams of the Sightline Institute finds more evidence, as told in this story from Sightline Daily:
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Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) depends on revenue from tolling to pay for some of its construction projects. One notable example is the Tacoma Narrows Bridge: WSDOT added a second, tolled span in 2007, counting on steady growth in traffic volumes to pay for the original construction costs.
But instead of rising steadily, as originally projected, traffic started tapering off. (See the red line above.) At first, transportation planners pinned the declines to the Great Recession of 2009. But after rebounding in 2010, traffic across the bridge has fallen slightly for three consecutive years—confounding policymakers, and forcing a series of controversial rate hikes.
Still, despite higher toll rates that appear to be discouraging additional traffic, state transportation forecasters are once again projecting a prompt increase in traffic—with annual growth rates increasing from 2 percent in 2015 to 4 percent in 2017, before tapering back down to around 1.5 percent in 2022. …
it is happening again. Without justification, state transportation officials are projecting a rapid increase in traffic volumes that they expect will help solve the problem of underfunded construction projects …
The abject failure of “endless growth” traffic forecasts isn’t just an academic issue. It’s actually starting to wreak havoc on transportation budgets all across the Pacific Northwest. Unrealistic traffic growth forecasts pack a double whammy: transportation planners who rely on them feel obligated to accommodate all that new traffic by building massive highway megaprojects; but the failure of the traffic to appear means that there’s just not enough revenue to pay for the overbuilt roads, bridges, and tunnels. …
Lets make a bet that the Port Mann won’t reach the 180,000 crossings per day break even point by 2021. http://www.abbynews.com/news/116879748.html
I think we have, haven’t we?