Another story from the Sightline Institute’s Clark Derry-Williams on ‘peak car’ in Oregon:
The Oregonian ran an interesting piece in today’s paper, pointing out that total miles driven in the state peaked nearly a decade ago.
.. .an analysis of new traffic data by The Oregonian shows that driving in the state actually peaked in 2004, four years before the Great Recession hit. What’s more, for the first time in the history of America’s love affair with the automobile, the driving levels nationally aren’t tracking economic growth.
This is absolutely right. But the backstory is perhaps even stranger: driving in the state effectively stopped growing as far back as 1999 or 2000. Starting around then, vehicle travel in the state reached a bumpy plateau…with a few ups and downs, but nothing like the growth the state had experienced in prior decades.
Here’s a chart that makes the point:
The reasons for peak driving are complex—a mix of economics, evolving technologies, shifting demographics, and cultural changes. But the implications are clear: transportation policymakers will have to wrestle with a new reality of declining gas tax revenues and no net growth in demand for new road space.
