I’ve been wondering what the vehicle counts are for the Port Mann Bridge – especially since the financial viability of the operation depends on a presumed minimum.
So does yvrlutyens, and he’s done some research:
I was curious about the “ridership” and toll revenue of the new Port Mann and I asked for the data. They said it was in the annual reports which were just released.
However, hardly anything is there at all. Only the barest notes. The report says that there were 10.6 million tolled trips, but it does not say for what period. If it was from December 8th to March 31, 113 days, that is around 94,000 per day, which is below what I understand to be the predicted amount.
The SDG report at page 10 seems to indicate daily traffic at a bit less than 125,000 per day in 2013, and rapidly growing after that (looks like 150,000 per day at end of 2014 which is only 18 months away).
Surely the authority can answer a straightforward question by now: Are the vehicle counts meeting your projections?
I doubt they’d have accurate projections for the “break-in” period when drivers are figuring out whether they want to pay the toll or not – and add to that the discount factor of the $30 credit and whether drivers decide to try different alternatives when that expired. Another wrench will be introduced when the introductory discount toll rate ends- is that at the end of this year?
Goiven that traffic flow is flexible and responds to a miriad of factors, I doubt you’d be able to make a proper assessment for a couple of years (after the full bridge and Hwy project is complete – which is still a year or so away?).
I would also avoid rushing to judge both road and transit initatives. effects of an infrastructure investment can take years to manifest themselves. if traffic is indeed lower that projected, i would see good news in this in that a modest road price can cause a great change in behaviour, allowing for further roll-out thru out metro.
Remember the millenium line:
“Money-losing Millennium Line falls far short of targeted ridership”
http://www.canada.com/story_print.html?id=faaaeca5-8eaa-43d7-ac1d-94c5de8459e2&sponsor=
I doubt if ridership has gone down.., the ones who don’t want to pay a toll are not using transit, they are finding alternatives to cross the river for free. Hence now the taxpayer is soon to be asked to replace the Patullo. i’m in favour of tolls on all roads into Vancouver…if you wanna play you gotta pay folks and the Vancouver taxpayer has to put up with the cost of maintaining our streets and tolerating the emissions for the car and truck folk who want to have cheap rent in the Valley
I think the point was for the first few years the Millenium line was way below forecasts.
Sorry for the confusion, the article is from 2005, stating that the M-line (completed in 2003) had still not met ridership projections 2 yrs later.
I don’t doubt that this might be true here, the initial period might not be predictive of anything. However, as I said in my earlier comment:
Is this indicative of a major forecasting miss, are these numbers incomplete, or is this initial time period just not useful in measuring a new project’s use? We are not getting many answers, and if there is truly nothing to see here, the TIC would be advised to be more forthcoming with its forecasts and statistics.
The Transportation Investment Corp got back to me with some data. They confirmed that 10,589,348 vehicles used the Port Mann from December 8, 2012 to March 31, 2013. The breakdown was:
Motorcycles 8,051
Cars 9,734,794
Medium Vehicles 529,064
Large Vehicles 317,439
Over 113 days, this is 93,711 per day.
Apparently they are going to provide periodic usage reports on their website. What would be most useful is a report that broke down the categories by day. That way the weekend v weekday spread would be more apparent. I also think that they should address whether this usage is on target. I’m quite willing to believe that the first three months is not a predictor of anything, but they ought to address that and maybe take it up with the consultants to see if their forecasts put any weight on the near term use.
Thanks!