June 26, 2013

Annals of Motordom – 64: Prediction, Competition, HOT lanes

An occasional update on items from Motordom – the world of auto dominance
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THE NEXT TEN YEARS
From the Boston Globe:
“The next 10 years will be as important to the auto industry and transportation literally as the invention of the Model T,” said Scott Griffith, former chief executive officer of and now an adviser to Zipcar. “We’re now on the edge of all these new business models coming along and the intersection of information and the car and transportation,” Griffith said. “If you look out 10 years, I think we’re going to see a huge change, particularly in cities.”

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Though the new-car market has rebounded from the recession, Los Angeles County had 28,000 fewer passenger cars registered in 2012 than five years earlier, according to California’s Department of Motor Vehicles. Boardings on the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s buses and trains increased 4.7 percent to 41.3 million in May 2013, compared with May 2011.

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Authority officials plan to spend $14 billion to accelerate that shift.

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FREEWAY WITHOUT A FUTURE: Design Competition
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(San Francisco)  Mayor Ed Lee and the city’s design community have turned a wanton eye toward the last leg of Interstate 280, which tapers off in the northeastern corner of the city, near the terminus of Caltrain, the local commuter rail, and the South of Market district.SF freeway
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The Center for Architecture + Design recently announced an ideas competition inviting architects and students to imagine a future San Francisco unencumbered by the shadowy underside of 280′s final stretch. Backed by a grant from the Seed Fund, the contest offers $10,000 in prizes and the exquisite satisfaction of playing God with a blank slate. The deadline is July 31. Read more!
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WHY AREN’T HOT LANES HOT?
If commuters hate sitting in traffic as much as they say they do, and if people of all income levels use the express tolls as surveys suggest, why are HOT lanes (with express tolls for single-occupancy vehicles) struggling to make money? …
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Using the work of Austin Gross at the University of Washington (via Sightline), the article explores the example of SR-167 in metro Seattle, “whose actual earnings fall consistently and astonishingly below revenue expectations.”
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The reasons?   “Two main conclusions: poor traffic planning and a lack of driver familiarity with HOT lanes.
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” ‘We don’t really understand how (drivers are) thinking about using it,” says Gross, “and it seems like they don’t really understand that, either. Price as a signal of congestion is rather noisy,’ he says. ‘It’s not perfect.’ “
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This has big implications for Metro Vancouver as we think about road pricing.

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