Today I posted:
It’s time to start asking. What are the counts of toll-paying traffic compared to what was expected and what is needed for the bridge to pay its way?
Fast response. Kyle picked up on some numbers I missed:
Numbers have already been released apparently, but we can’t always trust media on these things: News 1130 report here.
“200,000 fewer vehicles crossed the new Port Mann in February than went over the old bridge at the same time last year.” While transit “ridership last month was estimated at 38,000. That’s up from 23,000 in December” .
Still, what does that mean for the economics of the bridge?
Here’s my prediction on traffic levels I made In september, 2 full months before the new bridge opened. http://urbanowism.wordpress.com/2012/09/22/induced-demand-predictions-on-port-mann-traffic/ See the last part of that post for my prediction.
Numbers have already been released apparently, but we can’t always trust media on these things: http://www.news1130.com/2013/04/10/commuters-using-transit-to-avoid-port-mann-bridge-tolls/
“200,000 fewer vehicles crossed the new Port Mann in February than went over the old bridge at the same time last year.” While, Transit “Ridership last month was estimated at 38,000. That’s up from 23,000 in December” .
Now, lets build a new bridge over deas island and spend a few billion dollars. OR, we can 1) make a few million dollars a year on the Tunnel and put in a toll of $2 per crossing; or 2) reduce traffic by even 5-10% (my own opinion) with a toll of only 50 cents.
The only thing missing is bike infrastructure. Maybe the province will use the need for a bike crossing to justify a new bridge!
But it’s now a new government, and who knows what’ll happen.
One relevant fact to the comparison is that February 2012 had 29 days, vs. 28 days for February 2013 – so roughly half the “decline” is due to one fewer day, given that daily traffic is in the 100,000+ range.
I really, really hope that whoever gave the stats to News1130 (or News1130 themselves) accounted for the leap day. That’s just basic stuff!
What would be interesting is to see what happened to GEB traffic now that the PMB has been completed and tolled.
With a new government being decided on in May, it will also be interesting to see what they will do with the planned PMB toll increase in November 2013.