David Roberts at Grist quotes Vaclav Havel as to why he’s optimistic about changes in transportation – once we make a distinction “between widgets, which are the discrete elements of a system, and systems themselves.”
In other words, we should be focusing less on technological changes to cars and more on the nexus between technology and land use.
For instance:
“… limited range and long recharge time are likely to limit the use of all-electric vehicles mainly to local driving,” which will restrict their growth. The unspoken presumption is that consumers will continue to demand all-in-one vehicles, cars and trucks that can serve both short-distance and long-distance needs.
But consumer demand is shaped by infrastructure, markets, and policies. What if even more driving was shifted to local urban areas and long-distance travel was shifted to either public transit or rented/shared vehicles (like Zipcar or the like)? What if land use and transit could be shifted so that consumers only (or mainly) need cars for local transportation? That would remove the constraint on the growth of electric vehicles, no?
But what about those driverless cars, eh? Yeah, what about that!
More here.
Or high speed rail. Already, it is a much better choice than driving for longer trips. Much faster, safer and more comfortable. People can use cell phones, tablets and laptops instead of just wasting their time driving.
Given the impacts of car use as local transportation have on the way we live, I think that Roberts is imagining a less pleasant future than the reverse (where few if any people drive cars for local travel, but may still have one available – or a car share – for long distance travel).
Local transit systems can be much more readily (and cheaply) created to replace cars for local travel.
Rail projects can help reduce car use for the long-distance as well, but mostly on high-demand routes…it’s hard to envision a possible way of replacing the private car for reaching low density destinations.
Not hard at all. Rail connected and help start small communities before the automobile came around. If most people use it, there will be demand. There can be express and local rail on the same tracks. One just needs side tracks at stations or spurs from the mainlines to the community.