Vancouver’s 2040 Transportation Plan – Too aggressive or too conservative?

Here are my initial comments on the just-released transportation plan for the city, as reported by CTV British Columbia:

Vancouver has unveiled an aggressive transportation plan that would see two-thirds of all trips taken within the city by transit, cycling or walking by the year 2040.

To achieve that target, the city is proposing numerous attention-grabbing strategies – the least controversial being the long-awaited underground transit line along the Broadway corridor.

But other measures, such as implementing more bike lanes, eliminating car access on certain streets and removing parking from others, are certain to irk motorists.

Related: Read the full report here

Transportation expert Gord Price said the city’s goal is actually more realistic than it might seem.

Past estimates about declining vehicle trips have actually turned out to be too conservative, Price argued, and car use in Vancouver is already down to 1965-levels.

“The one thing that we do know from our experience in Vancouver is that if we build transit, particularly rail transit, boy, will people use it,” Price said.

The city isn’t trying to force people out of their cars, he added, but to make alternative options for walking, cycling and transit more practical.

“Then people will be much more willing to mix and match – to match up the choice for the kind of trip they’re taking with the options available.”

The multi-faceted report suggests the current car-free section of Robson Street may be joined by similar installations on Hamilton and Mainland streets in Yaletown and on Water Street in Gastown. Another section of Robson Street could also become “pedestrian-priority.”

For promoting cycling, the report suggests adding bike lockers and bike racks to parking lots, implementing a bike share system and potentially adding bike lanes to the Granville and Cambie bridges.

The costs of the ambitious project, and where the funding will come from, are unknown however. The report suggests $70 million in funding will be allocated between now and 2014, but says all further estimates will require further planning.

City council is expected to vote on the report next week.

I’ve posted on the ‘conservative’ history of past transportation plans here:

In 1976, for instance, the car was the choice of 90 percent of everyone who moved around within Vancouver’s borders.  The plan of that time called for the percentage to drop to 75 percent.  (There was no  target date, likely because the planners and engineers never thought it would be reached in their lifetimes.)

So what actually happened?

By 1992, the number was down to 70 percent for vehicles.  What might have seemed an unrealistic target in the heyday of Motordom was surpassed.

Next up: the Transportation Plan of 1997.  It forecast driving would drop to 58 percent by 2021.  Even that far out, it seemed ambitious.

What actually happened?

We got to 58 percent by 2008.

UPDATE: A fan writes –