If you’re a car company, this does not look good:
The New York Times notes that less than half of potential drivers age 19 or younger had a license in 2008, down from nearly two-thirds in 1998. The fraction of 20-to-24-year-olds with a license has also dropped. And according to CNW research, adults between the ages of 21 and 34 buy just 27 percent of all new vehicles sold in America, a far cry from the peak of 38 percent in 1985. …
The billion-dollar question for automakers is whether this shift is truly permanent, the result of a baked-in attitude shift among Millennials that will last well into adulthood, or the product of an economy that’s been particularly brutal on the young.
While there is good reason to think the latter, Atlantic Cities wonders:
If there are reasonable, nearby alternatives to owning — say, paying for a Zip Car membership, or taking the subway — why commit to the expense?
Of course, Millennials are more likely than past generations to live in an urban community, and this may be part of what terrifies car markers.
Smart politicians should pick up on this and strongly support transit, cycling and walking.
Also they should continue the push to build complete communities that allow these young people to live the way they want to be able to walk or cycle as well as take public transit to where ever they want.
And investors should pick up on this and move their money out of the auto and oil sectors.
And automakers should be afraid – very, very afraid.