The post on when Surrey might pass Vancouver in population got some considerable interest. Here’s a response from Chris DeMarco, Regional Development Division Manager at Metro Vancouver:
Metro Regional Growth Strategy (RGS) and BC Stats population projections… differ in many municipalities. Past experience with provincial PEOPLE projections at the municipal level have shown the projections to be quite erratic. Metro Vancouver works closely with municipalities and their land use plans and has done considerable work in assessing residential land capacity throughout the region. This collaboration is very valuable in preparing the likely subregional/municipal distribution of projected regional growth. The PEOPLE model does not include such spatial assessment or any recognition of zoning/OCP , vacant land, redevelopment capacity, etc. As far as I know, the BC PEOPLE model relies more upon historic growth patterns.
In preparing the RGS projections, there was general agreement among municipalities in the growth projections. The City of Vancouver has growth capacity and is likely to be the second fastest growing municipality – in absolute numbers. However, Surrey has much larger capacity and with growth at a very high rate through the projection period.
Surrey’s projected growth trajectory reached the crossover point of approximately 740,000 with the City of Vancouver by 2041. One shouldn’t take 2041 projections too literally of course. Forecasts to 2041 are orders of magnitude, and the rounded estimates inherently have a substantial plus / minus range.
Metro Vancouver, BC Stats and municipalities will be working more closely together to reconcile the divergent methods and projections in the future, as there can be significant implications related to municipal, schools, health, etc. planning, as well as financial considerations.
