I usually start my week with James Kunstler’s blog entry. The rest of the week only seems more, um, optimistic by comparison. But then I get a link to this – Chinese Transportation Growth – from the Early Warning blog.
Here’s the growth in ownership of Chinese passenger vehicles to 2007:
And what it’s projected to be:
In which case it’s Kunstler who will seem like the optimist. But, as Herb Stein said, if something can’t go on forever, it will stop. But probably not gently.
and here’s what it implies:
http://tedesign.tumblr.com/post/332233710/chinese-math
In 2005 the IMF did a report on their 30 year outlook for oil prices. Among other things it assumend 300 to 400 million cars in China. China is building the largest freeway system in the world, although most of it is tolled, not “free”.