No Quick Fixes

My column in the current Business in Vancouver:

No quick or easy fix for affordable housing policy

When it comes to the cost of housing in Vancouver, there are so many perspectives, it’s easy to lose your own.

Some mayoral candidates have put “housing affordability” at the top of their to-do lists.

Gregor Robertson says he will foster an “affordable housing boom.” Al DeGenova will lever “appropriate development densities” into hundreds of millions of dollars. Raymond Louie will do it by “better using the city’s assets.” Peter Ladner and Sam Sullivan speak about homelessness and social housing on their websites, but they don’t tackle affordability head on.

So, if I may, some cautionary notes for the candidates:

“Affordability” is like “density” – everyone thinks it’s a good or bad idea depending on how it affects him or her. It’s good if it gives you an option to get what you want – say, a condo downtown. But if you’ve already got one, there’s no personal benefit when more is proposed for somebody else. And if additional density for more affordable housing means an actual lowering of housing prices, well, that’s a problem.

Because that would mean assessed values would fall – and a policy-maker who set out to achieve such a thing would be committing political suicide.

No one thinks a politician would – or could – deliberately make housing prices fall in Vancouver. But if they’re not prepared to do so, that has a pretty significant implication. It means “affordable housing” in Vancouver can’t be seen to affect the value of the housing around it. Infill housing mustn’t lower current property values. Therefore, infill housing must be seen to be expensive if it’s to be accepted in expensive neighbourhoods.

The very effort needed to make new and denser housing acceptable – design controls, planning reviews, neighbourhood consultations – are all things that add time and cost. Result: more expensive housing – which then becomes an argument for those opposed to a policy such as eco-density. The savvy municipal politician understands there are limits to the public’s desire for affordable housing.

So when it comes to constructing housing policy, a mayor and council need to take a longer perspective. The problem we face today will undoubtedly change, for at least two reasons.

First, and unpleasantly, volatile changes in energy, the environment, financial markets and geopolitics are beginning to overlap, roiling markets and changing people’s assumptions about our way of life. The problem we try to solve today will assuredly be different in scale and type tomorrow. A quick fix by definition is not a solution.

Secondly, while turmoil may well mean more short-term pressure on Vancouver’s housing stock, in the medium term some current problems may solve themselves – particularly the four-generation problem.

In Canada, there are four generations alive at the same time, all pretty much in good health, from grandparents to grandchildren. And three of those generations all want to live separately. That’s a lot of pressure on the housing stock at one moment – but that moment will pass. What happens as the baby boomers dispose of their homes?

We’ve also built a huge stock of highrise condos. They may not be delivering widespread affordability today – but they can tomorrow. The West End of the 1960s illustrates how well a housing stock can age, becoming more stable and affordable over time. If Yaletown and Coal Harbour had not been built, however, the West End would be under brutal pressure today, rather than remaining accessible to lower middle-income renters.

So don’t junk eco-density. Squabble over the name if you must, but keep the momentum going. Vancouver does densification really well – and it needs to keep doing so, even if the payoff isn’t immediate. We need a 21st century version of the Vancouver Special: housing that blends in, is simple to approve, easy to build, sub-dividable and adaptable.

Once again, that takes time. A housing policy that sets a steady course may be even more essential in volatile times, so long as it’s resilient. Remember: no quick fixes.